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Thursday, June 23, 2022

Understanding RISKs in our decision making - MMC ID RR - 29

And here is the unedited text created by YouTube

good evening everybody good morning good afternoon hello today we're looking at the next slide which is slide 29 in the series about crises and this is the risk factor slide of the irp 2010 version 8 rp the integrated resource plan which is the resource plan for the next 10 20 30 years it gets updated approximately every five to eight years although some people think it should be updated more often i think every five years is enough

and this was 2010 and you can see it was the version 8 that we're looking at and there was still the final version after this but the version 81 had quite a lot more things in it than the final version and i was actually quite upset when they took out a lot of information out of the final version so let's just look at this version i had this table 37 of risk factors of different kinds of energy so no risk if there's obviously if there's a no risk project the risk factor is zero the cost assumption the scoring is zero lead time assumptions zero security supply risk zero operational risk zero so what zero means is no risk so if we don't do a project there's no risk there's no cost there's no lead time it happens instantly there's no security supply problem because there's no problem and there's no operations if we do a project that has no risk which is even whatever project you do there's always a slight amount of risk even if you install an air conditioner or a pool pump there's always a risk that maybe it's dead on arrival or something but do we know the costs of the project if we know all the costs in advance and we know 100 certainty we're going to meet budget zero lead time we know it's going to take three weeks is it definitely going to take three weeks zero because it's going to take three weeks if it takes four weeks then we made a mistake security supply is the sun going to shine for the next billion years yes we know for sure it is and operational risks well the sun's going to operate for 20 for 24 hours a day for the next billion years so we're okay and here you can see it says none is zero low is one moderate is too high is three and that's uncertainty and assumptions and then risks is nine is low nine is zero low is one moderate is too high is three and then there's all kinds of notes about the stuff on the left so now if we look at the highest the highest number is nuclear so nuclear power is the most risky according to the iop 2010 where they were thinking about installing more nuclear and south africa it gave got a 10 out of 12. the maximum score is 12 because if you have 3 3 3 3 3 3 4s are 12. so nuclear gets 10 out of 12 which means nuclear is very very risky okay cost assumptions 3 we don't know what it's going to cost lead time 3 we don't know how long it's going to take security supply will we get we can get uranium but of course we know that there's potential problems with uranium and uranium enrichment and so on operational risks well g what happens if there's a meltdown we're giving it a three and here you can see the notes actual capital costs could be significantly higher than assumed significant eia delays opposition to development so those are the problems that you know if you're going to build a nuclear power station you've got eras you've got environmental impacts you've got to check them all got to make sure everything's okay how you're going to look after the power station for a thousand years after it's installed then the next highest is pulverized coal and that's got a seven so cost assumptions one we think we know it's going to cost lead time we have no idea how long it's going to take security supply well said africa's got a thousand years of call and then operational risk three so that gives us seven and we look at six okay so we've got open cycle gas turbines which is a at the moment in south africa's diesel cost three we gave it a three in 2010 i mean look at us in 2022 with the price of diesel doubling in a year and from 2010 to 2020 the price of diesel doubled already which means that it's just mind-blowingly exponential growth we have no idea what it's going to cost lead time assumption well that that cost is actually the cost of building the thing yeah operational risks we say okay we know how to build it security supply we gave it two which is that problem we talked about just now and lead time assumptions one so you can see we got six and we go down to win wind wind gets two out of twelve now you would have thought with all the nuclear debate the nuclear so much better than wind why is wind only got too well cost we've got some idea what it's going to cost lead time we know exactly how long it takes to build and install a wind turbine scooter supply well you know we

there are different kinds of supply so the securities above the wind turbines which is what they're talking about here and then the security supply of the um of the wind um as long as the wind as the sun keeps shining the earth keeps rotating we're going to have wind if any of those two things stop well life will end as we know it so then we should worry about that operational risk zero so we give it two and then there's no pv here even though in 2008 the government announced the south african government announced feeding tariffs so you would have thought that the irp 2010 would have feed in tariffs i mean we'd have photovoltaic panels with feed-in tariffs and if you had photovoltaic panels well the cost would be zero because we know what the cost is the time we know what the lead time is security supply we know the security supplies operation risks and i would give photovoltaic panels a zero risk so there we are here we are with nuclear and coal having high risk and photovoltaic panels potentially having no risk so this is important to understand i know it says draft but like i said to you before the final version didn't contain everything in the previous versions and somebody went to a lot of trouble to produce this this chart i think it's important that we understand it i think it's important that we understand risks and that we deal with them and we go forward in our usage and yes i still believe that coal is a part of our future for the next 10 or 15 years at least so we should be building coal power stations that will meet our requirements and not necessarily build car power stations for 50 years when we're going to not need coal soon okay thank you very much as always like subscribe share and look forward to your comments good goodbye good morning


Here is the text

okay so good evening everybody tonight we're going to continue with our look at um the late build we looked yesterday at the 100 trillion rand that's been lost to the south african economy and the rand dollar is currently about 16. so if you take 100 trillion and divide by 16 that's 6.5 trillion dollars that's been lost and when you look at this power station on the bottom left this is the madupi power station in 2015 by 2015 it was meant to be finished and as you can see only the first two turbine buildings were under construction and they weren't even finished yet so you can see that when you build a monster you end up with a monster now we get told that coal power is really cheap and gas power is really cheap and oil power is really cheap and making diesel and petrol and all the lubricants that your cars need is really cheap and maybe it is really cheap maybe it is i don't know but maybe it is but maybe there's something else going on i mean let's look at one of escom's existing power stations up in the top over here this is one of their existing coal power stations it's actually in the distance in this photograph as well over there this is from the center of environmental rights they took these photographs some time ago maybe five ten years ago so you can see the smoke coming out of there's chimneys there and this is for the water because the power stations use a lot of water and you can see the smog that's been created but the pollution that's been created in the air by the power station look at that pollution on the horizon you can see it's really really really bad and this over here is an open cost coal mine so you can see that we're destroying prime land prime agricultural land which we need to make food and we're destroying it forever by coal mining surface coal mining and then if you go look at canada with the tar sands they're destroying canada and taking tar sands which might be good in the short term creating oil but maybe we don't need so much oil and then you have this power station where that's that smoke which is the same as that smoke creating all that smog which stands all that smog and ascon's biggest product now you might think that s-com the utility the south african utilities biggest product is electricity and you'd be wrong electricity s-com's biggest product is actually ash and here in the front of this power station is something called an ash dam and ash tams the walls around the ash dams have broken in the past flooding schools communities and also besides the the coal that you need the ash dam is taking up space and what are we going to do with all this ash some of it we can use for bricks or for this or that but most of it is just going to sit there for decades perhaps thousands of years and our great great great great grandchildren are going to say what did these guys do they had such a relatively small amount of space to grow food and to you know live in a fantastic pristine environment but because there was temptation maybe we should talk about temptation and we should talk about free will and ancient wisdom and our sergioli asajioli was a fantastic psychologist stroke psychiatrist stroke doctor who lived at the same time as freud and jung most people haven't heard of her sergio lee one of sergio's books is called free will and free will is not about waking up late and raping the planet and i use the word rape specifically because this and this and this is raped just like the rape of a young woman or a young man or even an old woman or an old man taking something from them that you can never get back that's what rape is rape is you take something from someone and they can never get it back they can never get that innocence back they can never get what they had before back before that lightning bolt came out of the blue and took their life away and made some people recover but there's all that this nature being raped it'll take a billion years to recover yes it will recover everything is recycled but it will recover but it's not going to recover in our lifetime or children's lifetime

so temptation is when you take what's in front of you and your myopic and you say what can i get now how cheap can i do it what can i build with it and free will is making a decision i'm going to run a marathon i'm going to wake up at four o'clock every morning go for three hours if it's snowing or sunny or i'm going to spend 25 years building programs and systems and show people that there's a different way to behave with the world which is what i've done since 1999

23 years so far

and spending approximately half of my time when i could have been working and earning but trying to work on the commons and looking for possibilities and here in the bottom right is a graph which comes from let me just exit that which comes from the white paper on renewable energy so it does this let's talk to the streaming people about it when the cursor moves to near the bottom it brings up that i must find a way to stop it but if you look at the bottom it says from white paper and renewable energy 2003 this is a graph from the white paper when remember i spoke before white paper is a government strategy document so strategy is what we call in business white paper is what the government calls it and it shows that here is the demand curve that blue line but when you build a power station you bring on much more excess capacity than you need and so there was this all the spare capacity and what s-com did is that they sold the spare capacity to smelters and other big users at really cheap prices because whatever they got for that triangle of electricity that was basically free because everything was paid for that line but what they didn't take into account that one day they were going to get to a point where they ran out of that excess and that happened in 2008 it almost happened earlier but it actually happened in 2008 and the 3000 white paper said that south africa will start experiencing load shedding unplanned outages electricity outages from 2008 to 2030. we're currently in 2022 everybody says why are we still having this but this graph shows and when we get to 2025 the load shedding is going to get far far far worse because that's when s com have to start switching off their power stations and so there's this thing called the s com cliff so we all think you know the writer comes on board and he says in two years time there's going to be no more load shedding where it's just double the price well we haven't already had the doubling of the price we've seen that you know so we go back to that slide where we looked at the price doubling let's see if we can find that slide yeah but here we are at this point 50 cents a kilowatt hour there we are at that point three round thirty kilowatt hour fifty cents to three round thirty

six times increase over 14 years six times if you look at this green dotted line that's inflation so we should have gone from 50 cents to 75 cents but we've actually gone from 50 cents to

three round 30. and in the meantime this green line is photovoltaic electricity grid tie without batteries price coming down and this yellow orange line is the approximate trend of grid tie systems with batteries price coming down and you can see what happens this year that the battery price becomes equal to the homeowner price and within the next five years the battery price will be less than s com's production price

now i personally believe let's go back to this other slide that we were looking at

i personally believe there should be you know you can build two of these monsters 4.8 gigawatt power stations if you go back up here and see that there's the baseline of when we expect madupi to come on so yeah madupi 1.5 gigawatts here madupi another 794 yamaduki another 1.5 yamaduki 704 madup is finished 4.8 gigawatts coming on stream supposedly between 2013 and 2016 so that was when it was meant to be done it was actually meant to be completed in mid-2015 but let's say 2016. okay so that's a really big power station that's a monster a monster that looks like this now if we bought a i go and say to people let's board 100 megawatt power station 100 megawatt coal power stand people said david you're nuts it's inefficient it's better to build amy lovin said there's no economy of scale for building a coal power station above 800 megawatts so in this case each of these towers should have been a separate power station not a big one big power station because of all kinds of problems for example how do you get you can get the coal coming out a conveyor belt to that one but how do you get the call to that one that one that one and that one then this one's producing waste ash and that one and that one how do you get that waste out of that power station in the middle so i said when they started having problems in twenty twelve twenty said knock out that middle one and finish those two and those two which means you can bring inputs water coal all the inputs you need to this one and take out the waste and on this side bring out the electricity and then that one you can tweak in the coal and you don't have to worry about finding ways to move coal around and ash around just take the middle and then we said no but we're going to waste 20 or 30 billion around i said yes we'll waste 30 billion rent but we'll save 200 billion around

because that's called learning when you learn you waste some money but you learn and then you don't waste it again yeah we're wasting it constantly so i said let's build a 100 megawatt power station

and then once he bought one let's put another one and when we bought another one let's build a third one let's modularize them so all the components arrive and within two to three weeks we bought a 100 megawatt power station and every month we produce between one and four 100 megawatt power stations if we did that how long would it take us if we produced one a month to get to 4.8 to take 48 months

it'd be quicker to do that than to do this and probably cheaper and we could do it in 48 weeks instead of 48 months

what's 48 divided by 12 12 12 months it's like five years of building one power station a month and if we build one a week we build the whole power station in under a year we modularize the system that's what a business model does it modularizes the system so you're gonna buy a hundred turbines you're gonna buy a hundred generators you're gonna buy a hundred switching stations you're going to buy a hundred coal feeders you're going to buy 100 conveyor belts you're going to build 100 stations because you need you're going to build 100 coal yards yes you're going to be shifting coal around the country but when you have embedded power stations and you have a cloud in cape town and you know the cloud's going to be here tomorrow afternoon you can turn on the power station in time one thing you can definitely do with the sun and with the wind is you know exactly what how much sun and how much wind you're going to have to more often during three o'clock and we can thank the airline industry for that the two giant super computers one is in bracknell and one is in uh it's in new york south new york i can't think of the name now these two crazed supercomputers the world's most powerful computers and they run the weather system the weather forecast system and the airline industry paid for them because the airline industry needs to know that when a plane takes off on a 12-hour journey it can land on the other side because it's very expensive for the plane to divert or to offload passengers at another airport and then fly the people they want to know when they take off they can land at the other side in clear weather even if it's raining or stormy now and if you get delayed your flight gets delayed by an hour or two and they say there's a technical issue chances are the technical issue is because the technical that there's a storm on the other side and whilst plans can take off they can't land and now we have instrument landing systems and all kinds of things which means plans can land even in a swim as long as there isn't a strong crosswind but the point about it is that at three o'clock tomorrow afternoon i know it's going to be sunny or windy or not and if it's not going to be windy and it's not going to be sunny i can switch on my embedded coal power station

so yes maybe it's inefficient to build a 100 megawatt call power station which can start by itself under its own steam but if you bought 100 of them it becomes efficient because you have economies of scale you have the learning curve remember we spoke about the learning curve

as the learning curve as we make more we bring the cost down but here as we make more the cost radically goes up as we make more of these things the cost goes up as we make more of these the cost goes up you've seen the cost we end up six and a half times in the past 14 years the waste the requirement for coal goes up people are complaining about lithium mines and lithium mine is tiny compared to a coal open coast coal mine like this that's destroying hundreds of square kilometers and then you've got all this waste and this is only the the ash waste what about the coal waste that isn't burnt and what about all the other waste that comes out of this what about all the smoke that's sitting in the atmosphere that we're breathing that's causing us to have respiratory illnesses i won't tell you about the latest one we just had for the past two and a half years the planet the planet says to us i can't breathe and it sends humans a respiratory illness humans turn on the air conditioners and go back to the office building instead of saying i learned how to work from my home office i know how to do that yes my children need to be educated so we need to have a hybrid system for children's education but every single office building worker must be working from home offices or in local pod offices if they want to be in community so we've just spent two and a half years learning a new system and we just want to go back to the old system and nature will give us nature will send us warnings one of the beautiful things about mother nature mother nature is a really caring mother and the caring mother will send a shot across the bow just like a a nice admiral in his aircraft carrier will send a shot across the bow of his enemy saying please heave to change direction change course and if they don't they'll blow them out the water now what's that what's going to happen here nature sends us warnings first it sends people like me and greta and al gore and hundreds of people like us saying warning the planet look after the environment look after the planet do things differently costs will come down if we redirect our money that doesn't happen then what happens god says i've sent 50 messengers no one's listening to them he sends a respiratory disease and everybody's suddenly at home and the canals in venice get get clean and there's penguins walking around on the streets in cape town and their coyotes on um golden gate bridge in san francisco and people in mumbai haven't seen the sky for 30 years the one guy says i can see the sky and for the first time in his life he can take his take his mask off because the air is clean over the cities of the world and that's what happened in the first three months of lockdowns and lockouts we learned how to clean up our act we learned how to clean up the world we learned so much

and then we go back to where we were we go back to the course we were on and that aircraft carrier blows us out of that water bam gone and maybe a million people died in the past two years from this respiratory disease what happens when a billion people die in three months and there's no antidote the antidote was that we cleaned up our act we listened to the message that nature gave us in the past two years to clean up back and not to create more of this and not more of this and not more of this and not to have serious amounts of death and load shedding because when these power stations start switching off and there aren't new ones and we don't have much time now we've got five years and you're going to see i'm going to show you a spreadsheet later on which shows you how in five years private people people working together communities can build their own power stations faster than s-com can faster than any government can faster than any utility can and we have to do it we've got until 2028 we've got six years before they start switching off these power stations and one more thing this power station over here when it was built it had an eia and environmental impact assessment routes how is it going to impact the environment and it's meant to have scrubbers in these chimneys to take out the pollution that goes out of the chimney and it's meant to have all kinds of other pollution features in it and those features haven't been put in so technically this power station if it produces one kilowatt of electricity it's outside its license conditions and the national energy regulator and the department of environment should be sued because they are not doing their jobs by allowing this power station to produce electricity and we were told that electricity from this power station would cost

approximately here we were told that it would the power the price of electricity would go for 50 cents to one rand and that would be it that would be enough for escom to be cost reflective and now where are we

we stuffed

cost reflective is a misnomer it's a way of covering up so we know what we need to do we need to look after the environment i came along greta thunder came along our goal came along even barack obama in 2009 i was in america and i read about dream and dream was double renewable energy in america in four years barack obama's first term and then doubled it again in the second term but even if it doubled twice renewable energy still only represents about five percent of total electricity production in the world so still a long way to go but pouring 100 billion rand 100 billion dollars a year into convincing lawmakers to allow coal when there's other alternatives when we could have hundreds and hundreds of embedded 100 megawatt call power sessions to back up embedded solar and embedded wind an embedded biodigesters and embedded sewage mining

and decentralized systems that are uncorruptable incorruptible that clean up your karma that's when we going forward we're saying i can do it i want to do it i must do it

you know we go back right back to the beginning the very first slide you remember it all the way back then

paul sagan he said you're alive today for a reason you are by accident of fate alive at an absolutely critical moment in the history of our planet do something join forces together with your friends if you build your own pv system great if you join with 10 friends or you join with your community you can save 30 percent of your electricity cost and you can put electricity on the on the township next to you give them free electricity and still save 30 electricity costs when you have an abundance of electricity and you live next to the coast as we did in cape town you can desalinate water and cut save 70 of your water cost by desalinating the water when you bring your electricity costs down by thirty percent in your water costs down by seventy percent and you double or triple the availability jobs start being created your petrol price comes down your food price comes down your health goes up your quality of life goes up how many times do i need to say it

you're alive you have an opportunity to fix the planet you have an opportunity to tell your neighbors hey watch these videos

if i made a video about doing the chaka like a dance i'd have a million subscribers by now i'm not making videos about that making videos about the environment and how to fix the planet i've got 133 subscribers come on people help me to monetize my channel or get more subscribers then i can go spend more time i can make two or three videos a day instead of one video a day and write more books can do more free public speaking you can speak to more businesses more people by you helping me by spreading the word by sharing this by talking about it in your communities by talking about it in your synagogues in your mosques in your churches in your temples in your shrines

in your addresses in your businesses in your corporates in your soccer clubs in your football clubs in your rugby clubs in your hockey clubs

with your friends over a broadway barbecue at your golf club when you're playing golf with your friends you're talking about this about what we can do to solve our problem so we don't end up with this is what we're looking at today

this and this and this and this it's not necessary we do need to do some coal mining but not like this

not like this we want our health to improve we want our stress levels to go down we want our relationships to go up we want to spend more time with each other more social nearness but not in big buildings with legionnaires disease and all kinds of other respiratory problems in the buildings sick building syndrome look up legionnaires disease

we know what we need to do the aircraft carrier has just fired a shot across our ship's bow and said change course

and if we go back onto the original course the aircraft carrier will blows out the water and who's that aircraft carrier that aircraft carrier is god who's carrying us who will say i need to save my planet and if that means a billion people are gonna have to die and that's what i'm gonna have to do anything god wants to do that no that's why god is sending us humanity warnings and saying look after my planet look after your home look after your biosphere look after your land look after your creation

so your cost of living goes down so your health goes up

so you can live better

so you can become telepathic and instead of going on you know you know my spaceship to mars you can go to mars or you can go to arcturia or ignore any galaxy just by thinking about it you don't have to wear a visual headset vr headset virtual reality headset to go somewhere you just close your eyes and you boom you're there just like that beam me up scotty beaming up scotty is slower than your ability to go anywhere in the entire universe instantly

okay let's make it happen i'm looking forward to your interacting looking forward to your sharing i'm looking forward to your comments looking forward to your likes and shares and subscribes and tomorrow night we look at the next piece of the puzzle good night many blessings to all and good evening good morning good afternoon wherever you are in the world thank you for watching

Tuesday, June 21, 2022

WASTING R100,000,000,000,000 - MMC ID RR - 25

Here is the text

good evening good morning good afternoon everybody today we've got quite a long video to make and we now looking at projections that were made in the past so we've looked at where we came from and how we got to this point and now we have to look at what did s com tell us what did utility tell us that we were going to do in 2008 and where are we now in over here somewhere 2019 2020 2021 2022 so in 2022. so escond told us in 2008 that they would deliver cordflay and they told us they would deliver quote flay in 2008 but actually it happened in 2010 so it means that all of this gap here is the potential electricity that was lost then in about 2008 s-con the utility told us that in 2012 they would start bringing madupi and kusile and ingula online so you've got over here the first point where you've got two units on hadoop for one and a half gigawatts and one unit of angular pump storage for 388 megawatts that's 2013. actually nothing came online then we have a year later 2014 madupi one unit comes online kusile another coal power station two units come online and in ghula three units come online and what actually happened nothing a year later 2015 we told that madoopi another two units will come online could see lay one unit will come online what actually happened one unit came online but as we know from past experience with escom started finding problems and then we're going to look at a slide which shows what s-com problems what they found in 2013. i don't want to get into it now but even though one unit of 800 megawatts came online because of the problems they've been having they're only at about 40 efficiency which means under half of this 800 megawatts about 350 megawatts is online and it's not online all the time that's why we're load shedding but now that's 2015. 2016 we told that one unit of madupi will come online two units of casino will come online okay what actually came online one year tomodopi that's from there in ghula three units came online and that's palm storage and that was in 2016 and angular should have been coming online 2014. saying gullah was 12 was two years late and then we have um the last crusader by here by 2016 madoop is complete and by 2017 kosile is complete according to the baseline that was set in 2008. now unfortunately escom moved the baseline so you'll see that they say in 2016 they say we brought the two units online as per the baseline but they don't tell you that the original baseline when they produced the project in 2008 after spending about five years on the drawing board and they said it's going to cost 79 billion rand and then when they produce it it's 250 billion rand so now if i come to you and i say to you i'm gonna sell you something for seven thousand rand okay and when you pay for it it's twenty five thousand rand you're not going to be happy suppose i tell you something's gonna be seven thousand dollars okay and i delivered you three years late and it's 25 000 you're not going to be happy okay so here we are so now we have actual so now you can see that theoretically and this i did in 2019 it's a bit out of date but you can see as at this date we expected everything to be complete by 2022 as it is now we're expecting everything to be complete by 2025. so then what i did is i took this information this is the baseline the red line blue line sorry the blue line is the baseline and the orange line is the actual and i said what's the value of this gap so let's go and look at how i calculated the value of the gap let's go and just look at the value of the gap first over here the value of the gap is 40 trillion rand so this is a thousand that's a million that's a billion that's a trillion 39 million million or 39 trillion rand and that's the v80 okay so now i'm going to show you how i produce this now this is conservative and it's only based on the dupian kosile what was meant to be delivered on time and there was also meant to be something by now called coal three so madoopi cole won kusile cole 2 cole 3 whatever they were going to quote it they haven't given it a name yet plus a whole bunch of other stuff was meant to come online gas was meant to come online renewable energy was meant to come online 30 percent of the grid was meant to be in private ownership by 2010 we're now in 2022 that hasn't happened let's go and see how i got this number so if this is conservative and it's 40 trillion then my my budget says that it should actually be 100 trillion now you imagine that the the economy is 100 trillion rand behind where it should be 100 trillion rand over the past 10 years is a lot of money if we go and look for example at let's go and search here south africa gdp long term okay let's go say trillion grand you'll see we get data trading economics okay and we're looking at these numbers it's got 10 years okay we've got 10 years so these are not being very helpful but here we go so 301 us dollar billion multiply by 16 5 trillion now we go back to this and we see here that

we're talking about potentially 10 billion year loss imagine if south africa's economy was three times as big as it is now and the reason that it's not three times bigger is because of late delivery of power stations and late delivery of power stations means late delivery of water and late delivery of water means late delivery of food and late delivery of water and electricity means late delivery of transport fuel

or no delivery means people are stealing railway tracks because they want to eat but we need the railroad tracks to transport goods around but people are so fixated on what they're going to eat tonight they're stealing railway tracks they're sitting infrastructure and this is because of the failure of our government and unfortunately and this is maybe a horrible thing to say but i'm going to say it in any case and people can blast me whatever you want to do that the south african government has given blacks a bad name because they employ they're doing nepotism and they're employing black people who are incompetent but who are brothers and sisters and calling in favors but i mean i've met very competent i work with ninety percent of people that i work with are coloreds blacks indians asians other people who are formerly disadvantaged who all competent capable wonderful people

and you look at the government the south african government employing imbeciles and you know giving blacks a bad name but blacks are good people they're competent they're capable i was lucky to be on a train from new york to toronto one year 1987

and i met a i was sitting in economy next to a black man across the table from when we started talking and it turned out that he was a director of kodak kodak was the world's biggest photographic company at the time they actually invented the digital camera but then didn't do anything with it we can talk about that as a different story and i spoke to him about black people and my what happened with me in south africa and my experience and he said to me that there are so many competent people but because of nepotism and because of politics so many incompetent people are put into power and they give black people a bad name and we need to fix that black people need to fix it white people need to fix it we need to put the right people in the job we need mentoring we need transfer we need knowledge transfer i want to show you the spreadsheet that makes this so what did i say i said in 2006 okay the baseline we were expecting 800 megawatts 2007.80 megawatts 208 that's the same 800 megawatts okay and not additional and then in 2010 we were expecting another 800 megawatts oh sorry no this sorry this is the baseline this is the actual and then baseline in 2013 we're expecting two seven two six megawatts we still on 800. 2014 6134 we start on 800. 2015-8522 and so on until we get to 2022 we're expecting 11 and a half gigawatts and we've got 9 300. so the graph is not up to date but you get the idea then what i said is that a normal call power station runs at 92 percent efficiency that's what it's meant to be but for this graph i said let's make this 50 let's make actual efficiency 50 and we could change this to 76 percent which is what the overall system efficiency should be according to south africa so that s com long term has managed to achieve 76 percent it's never managed to achieve 92 not in the last 30 years in any case okay but in a first world country you know china and so on brics countries you would expect the coal power station to be running at 92 percent efficiency 92 percent uptime and i'm saying let's assume that it's at 50 so based on kilowatt hours we take 800 megawatts we multiply by a thousand to get kilowatts we multiply by efficiency okay in this case i'm doing 92 which is what we should have and then i'm multiplying by 24 and 365 which gives us kilowatt hours per annum then i'm saying s com selling price in 2009 rans okay and that's com actual selling price and i'm getting potential rans which i'm saying is that number times one round two so escom should have made 1000 million 6.5 billion rand and because they were expecting 800 megawatts and at zero the lost income or 6.5 billion rand so now if the cost of unserved energy is 65 000 which is also conservative so this means for every kilowatt hour that s com make and sell for one rand there's 65 random economic benefits in the economy some people say it's much higher than that but i took 65 to be conservative again and i said okay we multiply

the baseline by the economic value and we get 419 billion rand that's lost economic income lost vat and we get the totals and we do it the next year we have the same the next year the same the next year the same now we get some actuals so now what i did is i said okay we've got 6.5 billion we meant to have we've got 3.3 coming in we have lost income of 3.2 we have total lost income of 29 billion and we add those together and we get actual 200 then we add everything together we get 1.8 trillion lost and we get 244 billion lost v80 and then we extrapolate that all the way to the end where we hit in 2022 40 trillion and if we extrapolate that further to when we expect the power stations we finished in 2025 we even hear 2028 i've got that as expected completion by then we're at close to 60 trillion round of lost economic activity and 7.7 bill trillion rand of lost vat and this is conservative so in actual fact take the 60 trillion and multiply it by three okay and for the 15 years since jacob zubin came into power and since this whole wrecking ball started south african economy has lost potentially 200 trillion rand like i said before that's not just 10 trillion a year anymore that's closer to 12 or 13 trillion which means for the south african economy could be four times bigger than it is now and if you want to know where the rest of the economy is well we export coal we export call to china and israel and europe and other parts of it so they've got power stations running then we export uranium we export titanium we export southern africa exports copper we export diamonds and we report them we don't have enough benefit we don't have enough smelters to take our raw materials iron ore we export massive amounts of iron ore a lot of it goes to australia where it gets made into finished products and we get the metal coming back but on the west coast we've got our own foundry which is meant to be producing rolls of pig iron for local and consumption and export and then it's meant to be carted around south africa on railways but unfortunately railways have been stolen one could call the current generation in south africa the stolen generation but you can imagine according to statistics the anc government have stolen one trillion rand over the past 12 or 13 years but if they had done their jobs and they'd employed competent people the south african economy would have produced another 200 trillion rand possibly another 20 or 30 trillion round of v80 and we would have full employment and in fact we would be importing people from all over africa maybe the world because we'd be growing we'd be one of the fastest growing countries in the world possibly growing as fast as china at 15 to 20 per annum and at the moment our gdp we've actually been in a recession for the past 12 years because our gdp growth has been less than our population growth so you can think with inflation gdp growth is always going to be positive it's very unusual that gdp growth will be negative but gdp growth is positive and but if population growth is faster than gdp growth then gdp per capita is coming down that's why we feel poorer that's why it feels like when i was i'm 58 now it felt like when i was 35 i had a lot more money i earned a lot less than i did now do now but my cost of living was was a lot less and although the government says inflation's five percent per annum my inflation and maybe your inflation is closer to fifteen to twenty percent per annum if electricity is going up by fifteen percent and water is going up by fifteen percent and food's going up by fifteen percent and transport going up by fifteen percent then my inflation's fifteen percent everybody's inflation is different if you don't if you're one of 30 40 billion people in south africa who don't have income and you get grants and you get a lot of freebies like free education free housing in many cases free transport or subsidized transport free medicine free health which i'm which taxpayers are paying for it's all free then your inflation is zero and that's why in south africa's inflation is only five percent but my inflation between 15 and 20 for 20 years and that means that i've had to find a new way of working because i can't increase my pay by 20 per hour it's impossible the only way i can do it is to be invested in bitcoin or something outrageous and as you've seen over the past few years we've had something called the south sea bubble go look up the south sea bubble i'll write it here for you let's go here

south sea bubble go read up about the south sea bubble in a when a graph goes vertical you can stay in if you want to but get out

people got greedy and they invested and some people have lost a lot of money some people have made a lot of money my long-term projection for bitcoin let's go and look at that quickly and then we can end let's go and say let's go to luno okay and you go and look at here we're at 338 000 rand okay and if we go look at the last week you'll see that um we started over here at 360 355 000 and now we're here and if we look at month it's going down we look at eur it's going down we look at all time look at this it's trending slowly slowly slowly up and by the time we get here 35 000 rand then it goes quickly up and down 2018 and then there's the stratospheric here and stratospheric term to the million okay and now we're back down here and everybody's crying because it came down but look at the long-term trend the long-term trend where is it for me i put the long-term trend at five thousand dollars sixteen times five eighty thousand rand i put the price at eighty thousand rand so i'm expecting the price to come down at least another fifty percent before it starts stabilizing and i'm not a market commentator and i'm not a banker and i'm not in bitcoin at the moment because i've i got out when it started doing this it's too much for me i'm not i'm not buying and selling i'm not doing this harder thing hodl have you heard of that

there's this new thing there used to be hold and then they created h-o-d-o and i thought it was a mistake if you go and look up hodl h-o-d-l holding


hold on for dear life i mean really hold on to dear life suppose you bought it a million it took your life savings they bought one bitcoin at a 983 000 okay and you're holding one for dear life and it's not 400 000 and you could have sold for 800 000 when it came down 20 and lost 200 000 of your income but now you've lost 600 000 and how long is it going to take to get back to a million look it could happen tomorrow but remember my opinion is that the price should be 100 000 rand now and yes bitcoin will keep going up keep going up but now it's not going up it's going down so this whole thing is what i call the south sea bubble and you can go and look at another website called kitko

and you can scroll down in kitko

here's exchange rates let's just go to crypto yeah bitcoin dollars


you can see this is the short term but we can make the graph and change the graph to let's say three months look at the graph started there now here so over three months it looks really terrible over six months looks really terrible you're at a date looks really terrible one year wow it started there 35 000 and now it's 20 000 so in a year it came down from 35 to 20 15 000 over 35 how much is that half but it went from thirty thousand to sixty five thousand so if you bought here and you sold there you you doubled your money of course if you bought one it was a thousand rand which was say a hundred dollars and you sold when it was 70 000 from 100 to 70 000 is a massive increase but if you bought over here at 51 and then it went to 17 you're holding on for dear life and it's now here maybe you should have sold when it got here at the same price you paid and not hold for dear life i i fundamentally disagree with that and then let's just look at all okay so you can see that where we are i've got this funny graph i don't know how to change it i'm not quite sure about how the graph works but you can see that it started down here and it went up and now it's coming down but the long term trend is this curve here and if i take the long term trend here you can see i'm at that 175 000. that's what i believe the price should be that's my own opinion it's not financial advice

i wonder if we can find out one more thing here so tech share price

if we've got a salt tech share price history graph okay it's not right now but if we can find it share price history

okay we'd have to get it for the whole long term but like it's only showing five years but soltec was a company that went from like two rand a share to 75 rand a share and i bought your grenades 40 vandershed went to 75 and a share wow it's great and then it came down to 60 and then i sold so i made a little bit i did i'm not a big investor maybe 5 000 rent maybe made 2 000 rand but the share price dropped out of existence and if you're holding for dear life and you bought it 40 and you could have sold at 60 after the share price dropped 20 you know then you made some money but if you if you held it till now you lost your whole investment

i know that there's this thing about you want to save money you want to save tax and so on because if you buy and sell you can be seen to be a trader but if you buy for the long term and the share price goes up up and then it drops 20 and then you sell and then you wait for it to stabilize for a year or two and then you buy again you can't be seen to be a trader it's not like you're doing hourly trades or daily trades or weekly trades you're not doing that you're just protecting your investment and if you buy at 40 and it drops to 20 and you sell and you lose that bid in the middle then okay you lost a little bit you lost 50 of your investment you didn't wait until the bottom dropped out and lost everything

and everybody's trying to be like warren buffett which is nice but warren buffett is a different kind of investor because warren buffett is buying the whole company

just trying to go back there

present let's go there there let's go back to here so warren buffett is buying the whole company he's got control over the entire company so he's in for the long term you can't compare yourself you buying a milli percent of a company you're taking a thousand rand or a thousand dollars and you're buying apple you've got no control but if warren buffett buys into apple or whatever he will buy a controlling stake that's who he is and he controls what they do and he gets the financials at 8 o'clock every morning and he looks at them and he's got a team of people that you don't even know about he's probably got 10 000 people working for him looking specifically at how the company is doing that he's invested in where they're going giving him feedback you know maybe he lives in his little house in omaha and he's got his persona and he's a long-term investor but he's investing in a different kind of way when he bought boxer atherway which was a textile factory and that started him off he started off saying i'm buying boxer hathaway and i'm going to be a long-term investor i'm going to hold it forever but he hasn't boxed hathaway it's not the same textile company that he bought 50 years ago and all the other thousands of companies that he's bought along the way are not the same companies anymore because he makes sure that they have the best directors the best people the best resources the best pay and by doing that he gets the reward it's like crystal visa when he had wadi basson working for him i'll end with this christopher included this guy why'd he burst on and um he let's go to here

christopher employed widely by swan and there was a period when wadi bazoon made like half a billion rand bonus and people said to krista what's going on how can you pay the ceo of shoprite etc a half a billion round bonus and christo said well you know he made me five billion this year and i gave him a bonus so that's because crystal visa owned the whole company or the majority shareholding and his share value went up and he personally maybe sold a billion of shares and gave half to whitey and yes of course he made mistakes because you know about steinoff that everybody makes mistakes even geniuses or maybe especially geniuses because the thing about people like christo and me and other people is we're always looking at possibilities always starting startups always trying new things always prepared to take risks and see where we go so my cat's just saying hello joey and it's a good time to end i hope you've enjoyed tonight's show and i hope you understand that if you employ and if you if you have nepotism look you can have nepotism because you employ your family look at the look at the queen of england her family has been ruling for a thousand years so there's nothing wrong with families ruling if they're competent i mean the queen of england and the royal family they send their kids to the best schools they send them to the best universities they also go to the military and get a military education which means they get nice rank and beautiful uniforms you know so they can be commanders and generals admirals and so on we can admire them

so they get the best possible education and therefore they geared and and and brought up to be in that position able to do those things maybe you and i didn't have that kind of education but some people do i know someone is a taxi driver he owns a taxi he owns 120 tax he started off as a taxi driver he sent his kids to bishops to the top school and that means that those kids got a fantastic education and they're all doing incredibly well one of them works for him and helps him in his business you see you have these opportunities and if you look at the long term then you can do incredible things thank you and bless you and good

Saturday, June 18, 2022

Electricity Price increases or Load Shedding?

 As seen in my Facebook memories from 18th June 2015:-

"On the radio this morning, Redi Hlabi on 567 Cape Talk asking the question: do you want an electricity price increase or load shedding?

"The answer is neither. We've already had a 200% increase in seven years to pay for electricity that Eskom can't provide. How can a further increase provide more electricity?

"Also ESKOM have told us that the money is to pay for diesel. And we are still years behind on the new build program and maintenance program. Therefore this additional money will not reduce load shedding.

"What wasn't discussed is the huge pollution that burning diesel does and its attack on our environment, besides burning diesel's attack on burning money, which isn't in our pockets anymore."

Thursday, June 16, 2022

40 minutes on The Learning Curve

Here is the text from the presentation

hello everybody so tonight we're looking at the learning curve spoken about the learning curve a lot in the first 20 slides and what is the learning curve how does the learning curve work and this learning curve is from henry ford's learning between 1999 and 1923 we're currently in 1922 so this is from more than 100 years ago to 99 years ago and we're going to look at what this is how it works and then we're going to say why have people forgotten about the learning curve what is it about management science strategy leadership etc that is currently causing especially since 1973 since the oil crisis constant crises electricity crisis water crisis food crisis sewage crisis waste crisis overfishing crisis sea increasing acidity crisis body acidity crisis cancer crisis health crisis pandemic crisis inflation crisis all these crises because we've forgotten how to learn so this is what henry ford discovered let's go look here this is um this says unit costs in thousands of dollars so over here you've got when henry ford was producing 10 000 cars which one would expect the model t car between at 1909 it was costing about four thousand dollars for 10 000 cars so that's at that point and you can see here let's say three thousand dollars for twelve thousand cars okay as henry built more cars here you can see when you got a hundred thousand cars okay the price had come down from just over three thousand dollars per car to about two and a half thousand dollars a car now we then look when it's another 10x so it's a hundred thousand so we've got two hundred thousand three hundred thousand four hundred thousand so like at about five hundred thousand the price has come down again from here to another thousand to two thousand so we got from ten thousand hundred thousand we reduced the price by five hundred dollars and then from 100 000 to 500 000 by another 500 dollars and then we get to a million where the price is another 200 and by the time we get over here let's say this is 10 million the price so now we've gone from 100 000 to a million that's 10 times and then from a million say 10 million we've gone down to one thousand dollars so when henry ford started in 1909 making ten thousand cars a year they were costing about three thousand dollars a car and when he got to 14 years later and making say 10 million cars a year the price had come down to one thousand dollars a car and how did he do this how did he bring the price down all the time in this learning curve the learning curve means when you make something the first time it costs a lot so for example i spent from 2004 to 2008 learning how to install a new user system and i installed my first one in 2008 2009. so it took me five years to do that and i put about 10 000 hours into that of the 10 000 hours i put a thousand hours into deciding what i needed reading manuals so that you could say was very expensive and then i installed other systems i did a lot of consulting i spoke at a lot of conferences and i learned how to install new systems and between 90 and between 2008 and 2020 12 years the price of systems came down 12 times so in other words the the pv price the inverter price and the battery price came down 90 from 2008 to 2020 for renewable energy at least so there's the learning curve at work the inverters got more efficient for the same amount of money you got a better inverter so the inverter that i paid 35 000 ran for divide by 16 say about two thousand dollars so the inverter i paid about two thousand dollars for in 2008 gave me 3 kilowatts and the inverter that i bought 12 years later gave me 8 kilowatts and more capabilities such as i have the app on my cell phone there was no app in 2008 it cost a lot of money for me to measure what was happening on my inverter instead of one kilowatt i got six kilowatts of pv um instead of 12 kilowatt hours of lead acid where i could only use four kilowatt hours on a regular basis i've got 12 i've got 15 kilowatt hours of lithium ion where i can use 12 kilowatt hours on a regular basis so the price performance is so much more effective and that's because of the learning curve but now look what happened between 19 and then say 2008 and now 2020 for coal power stations the cost has dramatically increased look at nuclear power stations not only is the cost increased but even for countries like france which are experts at at nuclear power other countries which are experts we're going to look at some pictures later on in this presentation another night you can see that countries and companies are unable to make nuclear power stations cheaper and also they don't know how to make them quicker in fact it probably takes two or three times longer today to make a nuclear power station than it did 30 years ago part of the reason for this is because maybe they're 20 of the number of people graduating in nuclear science today compared to 30 years ago which is a problem that was discussed by emory lovens in about 2007 he produced a paper about nuclear power and he explained all the reasons that would happen in the next 20 years the nuclear power and although everybody says it's so clean once you switch it off you've got to maintain that power station for a thousand years we don't know when i was a child 40 years ago and we spoke about nuclear power we were told that by 20 by 2000 we would know how to recycle nuclear power stations but we currently 22 years after that and we still don't know so gas power stations has the gas price come down has the oil price come down i mean look at gas prices in america and in south africa we call gas a gas a vapor that you burn whereas yeah we call petrol petrol in america petrol is gas so what you put in your car and look at the price that's going up all the time and why is that is it easy to blame a war in ukraine or russia even whilst at the same time america has become self-sufficient in energy and therefore international prices should not be affecting the price of gas or petrol or diesel or the fuel that goes into your car in america in south africa 30 percent of our petrol and diesel is made from coal and therefore that component should not be affected by international oil prices we also have local gas production we also have local canola oil production for example we export canola oil so therefore our canada oil price in south africa should not go up yet it's gone up two to three times since january

san faro south africa produces almost all the sunflower oil it needs sunflower oil prices has also gone up because they're priced internationally so we have this problem a number of problems one is the learning curve is not working most of the time if you look at say a 4 000 rand computer divide by say 15 what's that let's say 4 000 divided by fifteen who's doing a calculated two hundred let me just do my calculator here four thousand divided by fifteen say two hundred and fifty dollars three hundred dollars if you buy what a three hundred dollar computer in 1984 and that would be a big desktop computer okay um today you buy a 300 computer you get a laptop which is really light it's got a color screen uh it's got a battery that lasts 10 hours so you're really getting a lot more for your money when you buy but the price of the computer is the same so now if you took a mercedes benz car that cost you say 25 000 rand 20 years ago today that car might cost you a million rand which is a 40 times increase but yet if the if the car if the learning curve in the car was the same as the learning curve in the computer the car would still cost the same as the computer costs so why are cars costing more and more why are mercedes and bmw and even ford themselves and so many other companies toyota lexus aston martin why are they caught why why are these car companies prices going even tesla elon musk said his car prices would come down in real terms every year and they did for a while and of course he bought up the model

t i think it was what was it

it was the model x his first car it was the open car remember that one and then he brought out the model s it was called the roadster he bought out the roadster then he brought out the model s and then he brought out the x and then he brought out the three and then he brought out the y and the i got i got sidetracked because you know elon musk has got sexy cars and the r is the roadster but the r isn't in the sexy it's in the second word so the yeah if you look at sexy cars sexy cars you'll find those are the first letters of all of iran's cars but he couldn't call the model e a model e because of mercedes having the e trademark and so he had to call it a three which is an e backwards hence he has a model three but elon's car should be coming down in price every year in real terms

elon's managed to produce rockets at maybe 10 to the cost of nasa because it doesn't have sunk costs you know there's nasa both the first rockets it cost let's say cost them a billion dollars to build a rocket in 1950 well in 2020 when they were building rockets they were still recovering costs from 1950 what they should have done is said after 20 years those costs are sunk costs those projects are over we're not going to recover costs anymore we're going to work on new designs and that's exactly what ireland does you see governments are unable to do this hence we have something called a natural monopoly in the so-called electricity industry where a government goes and builds a power station for 10 billion dollars and then because of that huge investment they call it a natural monopoly so that no one can compete and then when there's a new product that supersedes that product then there's something called a stranded asset and i mean if i go and invest a million rand in a product or project let's suppose i invest 50 000 in something and something better comes along i can't go and claim from my clients for the 50 000 investments i made but if the government spends 10 billion dollars on something then even if they're saying in five years time that costs half as much the government will say no we have to pay those costs we have to pay for the stranded asset there's no learning curve so we have lots of terms coming on here stranded asset learning curve sunk costs natural monopoly there's a guy called samuel insult in 1920 who was the owner of the chicago electricity utility and he said when we go and build big utilities it's going to cost us such a lot of money and jp morgan and all those guys came along and andrew carnegie to with their money to invest and they all said no we will invest but then we we want to know that we're going to be able to set our product we need base load so basically it isn't how much the power station will provide base load is how much the big off-takers will take for example a mine or a smelter or a steel manufacturer for example those guys need a lot of electricity and they're prepared to buy pay sign 30-year contracts at a certain rate and so that's called the base load load means load it means off take it doesn't mean supply so you'll hear s-com and other utilities talking about base load there's no such thing i mean when s-comb build a five-gigawatt power station they go to their smelters and they go to the big users they go to the big car companies in victoria they go to the big smelters in richards bay they go to the big um they find out about new shopping centers that are being built that need a lot of power they go to the data centers that need a lot of power and they say how much power do you need how long will you buy the electricity for and then because of that they sell 70 of their electricity in advance that gives them the money to buy to build the power station and therefore this business about escom saying we need 10 20 30 increases per year it's completely false

the only reason that it's happening is because of inefficiency and inability to build a scientifically impossible power station which i talked about in 2010 when i said that madoop and casilla were impossible to build if you want to talk to me about that please ask questions i can spend hours telling you why madupi and kusile call power stations are impossible and they're not they're meant to be running at 92 percent efficiency madupi was meant to be completed in 2015 and still not complete it doesn't meet its environmental requirements the era the environmental impact assessment is not being met it's polluting the environment and it's only running at about 40 efficiency i compare it to saying well if you made fries chips in chip oil so you put your sunflower oil in a pot you made your hot chips you ate your chips and then you took the waste oil and instead of disguiding of it properly you put it in your car and then your car goes three miles five kilometers and then breaks then you the engine seizes then you spend the next three weeks fixing the car and then you run it on the same oil because for some reason you're learning you know if if i put waste oil in my car okay because although let's try this out and the car went five kilometers or three miles and then broke i would say okay we need a better quality oil but for some reason the government doesn't do that so samurai and insult created something called a natural monopoly and if you look in nature the word natural comes from nature natural has the word nature in it there's no monopoly in nature if the lions start getting too many then they eat too many back and then the back die off and then the lines die because there's not enough back there's not enough meat and then the back starts producing more and then they increase a lot and then the lines can reach and this relationship is called this relationship is called the locker volterra equation look it up lotka volterra

so the learning curve must be applicable everywhere must be applicable in renewable energy must be applicable in computers must be applicable in cars

must be applicable in food it must be applicable in water you know with the with the shortages of water in cape town the dams that we have can only supply 600 million liters of water a day but cape town currently needs about between 1.2 and 1.5 milliliters of water a day so we should be desatinating between 600 and 900 000 sorry between 600 and 900 million liters of water a day so whatever those numbers are we need double the water that we that we that we have right now i'll put in the notes how much the water should be so the point is we don't have this now if you do the calculation when you build a really big water power station such as the one the ones in in in america on the west coast of of california and the ones in israel you'll discover that they're making water for about eight grand a kilo liter but i'm paying 45 000 kilo liter and i'm only getting 15 kilo liters whereas before the drought in 2017 i was getting 40 kilo liters before i got to the maximum rate now i'm already at the maximum rate when i get to 15 kiloliters and back then i was getting five kilometers for free now i don't get anything free and i have to pay a service charge if i don't use any water for example now it's winter for about seven months of the year i don't need to buy water because i use rain water okay but i still have to pay the service charge and yet the government should be paying me for saving the water because i'm making sure that we have water in summer because i'm not using the water in the dams i'm making sure that the dams are full at the end of winter myself and thousands like me so we can have a learning curve in homeowners where we make electricity and therefore there's more electricity for poor people or for factories or because the factories have got more electricity they can employ more poor people so whilst the government says no david you've got to pay i think my the price in the first year of july we're going to look at this in another slide my price will be 400 kilowatt hour so i'll be paying 500 rand for 150 kilowatt hours why am i already paying that so i'll be paying even more i mean 500 ran 450 kilowatt hours is a lot of money right now today and i have to include vet vit tax

so yeah we we're going deep we can look at the slider we can say the learning curve is as you make more the price comes down fine but we need to go deep we need to really look underneath this graph and we need to say what's going on here we need to thank researchgate and all the people that have produced this graph and done the number of research so i didn't have to do it you can see at the bottom there where it comes from albert university blah blah so all of that stuff is there the model t so we haven't even got to some other things about the model t let's go into the model t so what did what did four do well firstly every single model that came out to the model t let's suppose you brought out a new model every year just like you get a new ford every year a new model with new lights and stuff he didn't do that he made sure that that as many parts as possible between models were the same parts so when the new model came out of the same car same parts and the next model same parts and the next model same parts so the 2020 model of the model t ford was using some of the same parts of the 1919 model that was the first thing he did the second thing he did is by 2020 he was making lots of different kinds of cars not just the model t so if he was making five or ten different kinds of cars he made sure that the same parts were used across multiple different cars

so he made sure that as new cars came out and they had more efficiencies and more capabilities use the same parts and across different models use the same parts and if you could do that in 2020 why can't car companies do that so if you could do that in 1920 why can't car companies do that in 2020

why do we allow people to put the prices up why don't we demand that the prices go down every year and the quality goes up and the efficiency goes up and the miles square the miles per liter or the kilometers per liter go up why don't we demand those things

why are we not learning and there's a lot of other learning that we can do in 2020 why can't we learn faster than in 1920 why don't our brains why haven't we learned how to use our brains in a more clear way why are we so stuck on my epic material our brains are fogged up i made another video called anxiety about brain fog and about why people are so anxious watch that video if i knew how to do this watch the video yeah i would do that but i don't know how to do that i'm not a video editor i'm a scientist i'm making scientific videos if there's someone watching this who's a video editor that wants to do fancy video editing be my guest come on board and you can be the video editor but right now i'm not interested in that i'm interested in giving you scientific facts so that you can make decisions for yourself that are not fake news and if i tell you something that i think is fake news i'm going to tell you this information comes from that place and it could be fake news everything i say by the way is advice it's up to you to decide how to use it and to make use of it i'm not prescriptive i'm not telling you what to think i'm telling you that henry ford showed over his life once he started his factory the ford factory he even bought his own power station because he realized that he could make his own electricity cheaper than he could buy it and while samuel insult was making a so-called natural monopoly in chicago samuels at the same time made something called a monopsony and a monopoly was the only company that could buy the products in south africa the only company that you can buy electricity from is s-com unless s-com nominates for example a municipality to sell adequacy on their behalf but then if i want to sell electricity the only company that can buy my electricity is escom all the cities or municipality on their behalf so i can buy electricity at say four and a kilowatt hour but if i want to sell it i can only set it at 50 cents whereas escom are selling electricity to the municipality at 120. so therefore i should be selling electricity at least at 120. and if you consider that my electricity if i was allowed to export the electricity which i don't i don't export electricity but if i could then i could sell the electricity at 300 kilo an hour to the the council and they could set it to my neighbor at 400 kilowatt hour and they could make a one-round mark-up and that my electricity never touches the transformer go straight out of my house straight into my neighbor's house that's reducing the load on the grid you'll find that cpac the california public utility discovered that when there was net metering the efficiency of transformers went up the cost of production went down they didn't need to have service charges we get told no we need to have service charges because we're all using less electricity but actually in fact the facts are that when people do electric make their own electricity and when they're allowed to export to the grid and when they're allowed to sell to their neighbours indirectly via the grid because i'm selling at a price say three round the neighbor's buying it for end and therefore the utility is making the money in the middle just like the stock exchange if i said you were share i sell the share for one rand you pay 120 and the stock exchange makes 20 cents in the middle same as if i want to sell you some ransom and you want to sell me some dollars you want to sell me some dollars and we see the rate is 15 to the dollar and if we do a one-on-one exchange then you give me 15 15 grand so i give you 15 rand you give me one dollar but if you go and do this via the stock exchange or via the exchange exchange shops then i've got to give them 16 ran for one dollar or you've got to give them 81.20 for 15 rand and that's how people on the middlemen are making the money in the middle we're going to talk about middlemen as well and how that has corrupted our system to some extent and hence why it is blockchain because blockchain is a direct transaction between buy and seller and luna and other exchanges in the middle make very small amounts of money because they don't need to make a fortune to make enough profit

so i think that we must understand that there's a learning curve as we make more the price comes down the efficiency goes up the quality goes up so the quality time cost triangle everything is better and if this is not working if over time we start here with a price of one thousand dollars and by the time we get to 10 million the price is five thousand dollars we failed

and why have we allowed this to happen why have consumers allowed their prices to go up

i mean we get told that everything is made in china and it's made really cheaply and there's slave labor in china you know and if the save lab is making your shirt let's suppose you're wearing a nice shirt or a nice jersey and it got made in china with slave labour okay then you're going to have negative energy because your jersey was made with slave labor you wearing you're a slave owner and the fact that you might not have employed that save directly that doesn't matter from an energy point of view one of the reason why there's so much sickness in the world at the moment one reason why there's so many pandemics is because if i'm wearing clothes maybe a million people are involved in the clothes i'm wearing right now from the farmer from the person making the nutrition for the farm the the pesticides and all of those kinds of things on the farm the chemicals that the farmer uses the petrol the oil system the gas system the car system the transport system the shipping and then the factories in china or korea or even in south africa making the textile goods with machinery made in germany and france and other parts of the world america switzerland textile factories textile factories in italy milan huge textile in area all the people designing the textiles designing the clothes tens of thousands of them people sowing cmt cut make trim die houses finishing

boxing putting stuff in boxes transporting this stuff carrying it to a house try it on changing rooms shopping centers electricity water so i'm wearing jeans and i'm wearing a vest because it's cold i'm wearing a shirt and a jersey and i'm wearing socks and i'm wearing slippers that's what i'm wearing right now i'm wearing glasses so if i add the production line system with the glasses i'm wearing my wedding ring gold so the gold was mined out of the ground so i could have a wedding ring a gold reading ring with all the symbolism i had to have a haircut so that i could look beautiful for you in this in this or handsome depending on your point of view in this video so a million people maybe even 5 10 15 20 million people have been involved in what's in my body and on my body right now and then there's the food there's the water there's so much going on right now how many people are involved in my life if one of those people is a slave i am indirectly responsible for that and we consider that they're saying like 15 million or 25 million or something you can look it up slaves in the world

then these are people that are working for a pittance maybe a boat of rice a day

maybe they have to work at the factory maybe they don't even have a life maybe they're working in places where they have to send money home

and you think about that we want to fix our system we've got a lot of work to do we've got a hang of a lot of work to do and my model that i invented in 1999 fixes all these crises all together and i want to work with you i want to work with your company i want to work with you directly i want to work with your community and i don't do the work what i do is i do knowledge transfer if you want to have a half in our presentation like this one about

the learning curve i can do that if you want to have a three minute presentation or even a 10 second presentation i can do that too but if you watch these videos i'm making now and you get the background detail then by the time i come on site and i do a keynote speech by the time i talk to your ceo by the time i talk to board of directors by the time i talk to executive committee of your community by the time i talk to your accountants you already have the deep insight you need to make the kinds of decisions you need to make for yourselves to make sure that your system is clean that your system doesn't impact the environment

that your cost is less and less for yourself and the cost is less and less for the environment and the cost is less and less on the animals and the cost is less and less on all the animals that you'd like to come to south africa and africa to see if you come to the serengeti and other places like that you come and look at the lions and all those things you go to asian look at tigers we don't want to be looking at them in zoos anymore because we want to be looking them in the natural environment but if we if we're tearing down forests and orangutans are dying almost extinct because we want more oil out of thailand in those places philippines and we're cutting down forests in central africa i've flown over central africa in the middle of the 19 plains where it's been not cloudy and you can see fires burning across those forests because people are burning down the forest because they want to have land to for cows and i'm not saying we shouldn't eat meat but maybe you should have meat every three months like i do i have a little steak or something once every three months it's enough for me i don't have to eat steak every day but i like to eat it that makes you feel good and comfortable and the old testament the bible says why should eat meat on special occasions well obviously every day is a special occasion because i'm alive when i wake up in the morning it's a special occasion but right now i don't have to eat meat i have to eat it on a really special occasion such as the new year or the fast break or whatever the case is not every day and this is all part of the learning curve as i learn more about health my health cost comes down as i learn more about food my food costs might go up okay because i'm buying more and more quality food but my overall health cost comes down my overall cost of living comes down and i mustn't be picking on one number people will say but david you're paying twice as much for this food as the guy next door maybe it's true i am but for me the primary thing as i said in a video before it goes in my mind the primary thing is what i'm eating what i'm drinking what i'm breathing and what's going into my head what what i'm thinking what consciousness is entering my mind and that's what you see this this youtube channel is called being human and thanks to ram ram kumar from eshram kumar a doctor from natal who went off who had a serious health crisis and went to india for for a year and he did a major detox there and read about it in his book called being human it's fascinating i don't need to repeat that he's written it it's in his book if he asks me to review it i'll review it i've often thought about that should i review books happy to do it not sure if it's allowed or not but i can take everything i know and i can put it together in these videos for you

so there must be a link curve in everything we do we should be breathing more and more clean air every day we should be drinking better and better quality water our milk standard should be increasing but our milk standards are decreasing yes you heard that correctly if you're going to look at the mock standard from 1990 and you compare it to the milk standard in south africa maybe other countries 2020 you'll discover that milk allows more pasta today than back then because the demand for milk has outstripped the ability of mankind to produce cows to produce the milk and therefore in order to produce the amount of milk we need the quality has decreased but then maybe we should be looking at alternatives for milk maybe there's other kinds of maybe there's nut milk maybe we don't even need milk although if you don't have sugar in your coffee it's nice to have a little bit of milk because milk is lactose it's a form of sugar

so the learning curve is applicable everywhere not just in ford ford cars or mercedes benzes but it's applicable in your jerseys it's applicable in your clothes it's applicable and everywhere and it doesn't mean that the person who's actually doing the work should earn less and less and the middle man and the retailer should earn more and more so the guy who made my jersey which maybe this jersey cost fifty dollars it's quite an expensive jersey maybe the person that made it only got one dollar and then the middle man got ten dollars and then the shop i bought it from got thirty dollars and that's really unfair it's very very unfair it's very very unfair that the person that took the most risk is paid the least and that's something we need to look at there should be no need for slave labor in the world today in 2022

and if we don't stop this parasites are going to get worse because everything we get from nature when we get a parasitic disease that causes us to be unable to breathe it's because nature is telling us hey humans i can't breathe i'm sending a breathing illness what do you do you stay at home for two years great everybody's at home for two years and if you watch other videos i made you'll see the canals in venice got clean people said they'd never get clean but after three weeks they were clean after lockdown started people stopped cruising people stopped flying

people in bangladesh or in parts of india mumbai one guy said i can see god because for the first time in 30 years he could take off his mosque that he had to wear for 30 years and had to run air cleaners at home

because of the terrible pollution

and the capital of pakistan we know someone there they've got an aircrane in every single room in the house

because the pollution is so bad in that city and they wear masks all the time whether there's covert or not they have to wear masks

we want all of our inputs to be improving we want the quantity to be going up constantly

we want the time to get them to be coming down because their abundance is going up we want their cost to be coming down that is a pure quality cost time triangle

but we get told we get taught in business school if you want the quality to go up and you want the time to go down then the cost numbers go up or if you want the cost to come down then the quality must come down or the time must go up this is false it's completely false i'm sorry to say and obviously when i learned about this when i did an mba in 1992 i thought it was true but it's not true if we have the learning curve which is the subject of this talk then the quality must be going up all the time the time to manufacture must be coming down all the time and the cost must be coming down all the time we don't have to have this thing where if we want to make the best quality we've got to have the highest price there's lots of things that we make that are fantastic quality and low price for example what you buy at your corner grocer

or we get stuff from the farm there's a farm in france that deliver to us

and we get fantastic quality goods at a really low price delivered in a cold truck by a very friendly guy they even tell us it's going to arrive at 9 34 am that answer is going to arrive by 10 o'clock it's going to arrive between 910 they give you the precise minute the truck is going to get to your house i've never seen that before

we pay 250 rand for a fresh box of vegetables we don't even know what we're going to get because it's vegetables in season and maimonides a great rabbi from the 12th century and a consultant to the kings or sultans of turkey he said you should eat food in its season so the season in south africa right now in the southern miss winter so there is lots and lots of fruit with vitamin c because you need vitamin c in winter strawberries are summer fruit we should not be eating strawberries in winter yet today you can strawberries all year round we get apples all around because we have massive apple sheds and maybe it's okay to eat apples right around i certainly like like eating an apple every day an apple a day keeps the doctor away remember that one of the reasons is because an apple cleans your teeth if you're not going to brush your teeth at least eat an apple before you go to bed or in the evening after you've had supper we need to listen to ancient wisdom we need to see what's going on we need to reduce our cost for ourselves we need to reduce our cost on our environment so that they're more animals there's more fish in the sea there's more crustaceans there's more


there's better quality water there's better quality food when i go to us i worked in a hospital in south africa for six months in 2019 i was shocked at the state of the hospital toilets i was shocked at the state of the furniture etc and i was especially and mostly shocked at the state of the restaurant and the food it was serving it's such a fantastic opportunity to serve the best quality organic food at the cheapest possible price made locally with a 100 mile diet everything is made within 100 miles of where you buy it 160 kilometers to show people how to eat if you teach people how to eat you keep them out of hospitals

and as the world got more healthy at the beginning of covert believe it or not trillions of animals hundreds of trillions of animals were saying thank you humans for staying at home thank you for allowing us to go us coyotes american foxes to go trotting on that big bridge in california the golden gate bridge the penguins in in um simonstein and captain to go waddling down the main road because there weren't any cars in cape town the people in mumbai who could see god because there was no pollution

god shut us down for a reason to teach us how to look after the planet but all we want to do is go back to the office in a building my office is at my house my office has been at my house since adsl arrived in south africa in 2002. that's when i moved my office to my house before that my office was in my clients every client i had i had a desk in the client after that some clients i kept the desk and i said i didn't need the desk anymore

and therefore my transport cost has come down my pollution has come down my maintenance bill has come down i don't spend much money on cars i don't spend much money on transport compared to my friends

my main priority is to make sure it goes into my body is pure it's quality

it's making me healthy i want to make sure that the clothing i wear is the best possible quality at the least possible relative price and that there haven't been anybody any slaves involved and if they are every night or every morning when i do my daily prayers i pray for forgiveness that i am wearing clothes that may be of me made by slaves and that i pray that they will be freed as soon as possible and if they're not free physically then their minds should be free because once your mind is free you get something called redemption and once you get redemption you get something called revelation

and if you are redeemed you will live people that survive concentration camps believed in the future they believed in god even amongst even at a time of terrible anguish

they believed in the goodness that they're good people out there that will come and help them and not steal from them

we must apply the learning curve in everything we do the cost of everything must come down not just and it mustn't just because production goes up let's suppose i only need ten thousand a month of something when i make ten thousand this month costs x when i make ten thousand next month or next year it should cost x ninety percent of x when i make ten thousand in extremes cos eighty percent of x etc every year when i make 10 000 the price should be coming down by 10 if it's not i'm not doing my job even with inflation it should be coming down in fact there shouldn't be inflation we can spend hours talking about why inflation is ridiculous that inflation is caused because of our system which if you saw in the previous slide i spoke about exponential growth exponential growth causes inflation we get told that deflation is bad but with inflation i put a thousand rain in the bank this year and i can go and buy say 100 loads of bread next year i can only buy 90 loaves of bread but with deflation if i could buy 100 loaves of bed this year i could buy 110 loaves of bread next year which would force people to save it would incentivize people to save because people would know that their savings is values going up faster than inflation in fact it's deflating which means that it's becoming more valuable that's what we want over time as we get older we need to be getting more valuable our values must be increasing not decreasing so the learning curves on values must be increasing

so i want to bless you that you'll understand the learning curve that you take what i'm saying and talk about it with your friends with your colleagues with your wife your husband your boyfriend your girlfriend your mother your father your child your boss and each of these subjects that you'll talk about them and try and go deep try to find out what's underneath

i bless you that you find the wisdom from the words i've said i bless you that you speak to each other and look for the wisdom and the words that each other give you i bless you that we find ways to get rid of slavery in the world i bless you and all of us that we find ways to be more healthy together and that we find ways to make our world and planet more healthy amen