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Genesis 1, 28 says that we should "go forth and multiply, and replenish the earth." Not all Bibles have this "replenish the e...

Friday, April 19, 2019

My answer to "Engineering News How Can Embedded Generators Help Close South Africa's supply gap?"

Chart from the Engineering News article, not attributed


https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/how-can-embedded-generators-help-close-sas-power-supply-gap-2019-04-19-1


I agree with Tobias, except that I think that the PV design needs to change. Whilst it is obvious that north facing PV is the most optimal from a production point of view, if the PV is not being used at mid-day, then it is a waste of time. The efficiency at mid day is high, but the effectiveness is low. And therefore East and West facing roofs and Ground mounted PV arrays should be included in the system. This will lengthen the Solar Day and lower the mid-day production peak. So assuming that of the 6 kW system in the diagram, what if 2 kW was West facing, 2 kW Eeat facing and 2 kW North facing. What would that do to production? Can Tobias produce a new graph that maps this change? One more point. Large scale batteries have declined by 35% in price (https://reneweconomy.com.au/more-stunning-falls-in-solar-and-battery-storage-costs-put-fossil-fuels-on-notice-31119/) in the past year. Over the past few years large scale batteries have been declining by 20% per annum. The 35% decline in the past year means that pricing decreases might be speeding up, possibly because of the introduction of Gigafactories. South Australia have already seen massive advantages in the use of Tesla Large Scale batteries, and this means that one could relatively easily and quickly get to a point where Small Scale Prosumers could be involved in electricity "production" from 6am till 10pm, and consumption from 10pm till 6am. I believe that load shifting is essential to the problems South Africa faces. I also believe that one needs to look at the bigger picture. It's not about how much money the electricity sector can make, but how much money the entire country can make because of the electricity sector. PS: One should also read https://reneweconomy.com.au/how-the-tesla-big-battery-kept-the-lights-on-in-south-australia-20393/ to get an understanding of how big batteries stabilise the grid and don't only work as peaking power stations.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

On being an entrepreneur and its challenges

I work about 16 months a year. I’ve had my own business since 1994, the same year that Jeff Bezos started Amazon. And we are both the same age. After that it diverges, financially. But he lives in the USA and I live in South Africa. We have different challenges and opportunities. I’m interested in our electricity supply, besides earning a living from Computer Programming.
So number one is the time you need for your business and your life. Some people say they should be separate, but why should they? If you enjoy what you do, then you’re doing it all the time. Of-course you have fun, and as an independent-contract-part-time-programmer, I’ve learnt a bunch of other interesting stuff, e.g. I’m a Reiki Master, a Tai Chi Instructor, a Kabbalist, an African Djembe Drummer, a Meditator, an Alchemist, a Jew, a Buddhist, a Bodhisattva, a touch typist, and generally a nice guy.
Some people say that the family shouldn’t be in the same business. But my wife and I have worked together for almost 20 years, and in that time she has developed a new interest and business for herself at the same time as helping me with my business. And I’ve helped her with her business. The biggest and oldest family run business is the British Royal Family. And the’re pretty successful (and sitting pretty).
And I learnt to ski at 47 years old. So you can always teach an old dog new tricks.
And I believe that the next five minutes are the most important of my life, so I have air cleaners at home, and then the next day is important, so I make my own water and electricity. I have my own retirement plan. It involves having paid for my car and house and electricity and water and food by the time I get to 65 years old. Of-course, I won’t retire in the normal sense of the word. And in any case, I’ve been retired before. And retirement for me means waking up in the morning and deciding what you want to do today.
And I can work from anywhere, coffee shops, and at any time. I joke that a weekend is when you have two days off in a row. For me two days off means two days of not touching a computer, and that’s really difficult when a remote control is a computer and a car has a computer in it. So I guess a day off is in the countryside away from technology, but I don’t wear a watch anymore, and I use the watch on my cell-phone, so I’m still using a computer … (Note that I don’t believe in fitbits, which track everything you do and send it to a remote person who can track you, even when you make love! And I don’t believe that everything you do needs to be recorded.)
The second challenge is comparison. We all compare ourselves all the time. Me to Jeff and to my school and university friends, one of whom owns properties in three countries, and another who works at South Africa’s biggest (and richest) company. But the easiest thing for me to do is simply to compare myself to myself. I’m getting better all the time and if God made the world and it was “good” then “good” and “better” must be good enough for me. We have the job of perfecting the world. And in an “agile” world, we incrementally make it better one day at a time. Comparison is one of the 10 commandments. Thou shalt not be jealous, I mean “thou shalt not covet” (you must not be greedy for what belongs to others).
BTW, I have a joke (story / true story): “Why are there grades in schools today? Because there aren’t standards anymore!” When I was at school we had standards. When people ask me what type of programming I do, I say “bug free programming.” Maybe it’s impossible, but it’s a standard. In our liberal world, we keep dropping our personal standards to the lowest common denominator because it’s “ok.” But ok backwards is KO and I do not wish to be knocked out, so as I gain more and more knowledge and capability, I constantly keep my standards as high as they can be.
BTW, I’ve always been an agile programmer. Of-course agile programming was around before “Agile” was invented, just like Gravity was around, before it was “discovered” by Newton. Contracting means getting paid on performance, each and every month. Therefore one needs to deliver and I want to deliver something every single day and make something live every single week. Newton understood the gravity of the situation, how grave a situation is, how important it is, and he was one of the world’s most incredible entrepreneurs.
Why 16 months? Well I set myself up to break even at 80 hours a month (so that I can do other stuff the rest of the time), but sometimes like at the moment, I work on a full time contract whilst keeping my other clients happy. So I work 160 hours a month for someone and 30 hours a month for someone else and I have a few other clients, and I have lots of other things going on. So I’m typically at my computer or reading or researching or listing to Audible Books (that’s what I do in my car: I don’t listen to the radio: if something is important, someone will tell me; or I’ll see the headline somewhere; or when I go to Google on my iPad, I’ll see the headlines) for about 10 to 12 hours a day. Most employees who I’ve met work six hours a day. So I’m putting in double that. And for 40 years. I’ve only slowed down when I got depressed, and I only got depressed because I blamed myself, when I had a financial meltdown. Never mind that big organisations with lots of well qualified directors also have meltdowns and many of them don’t exist anymore. I’m still here!
Another thing is that you need to know that you will spend a month a year working for the government, doing tax and VAT returns, and recons, and dealing with your accountant and tax specialist, and getting your Annual Financial Statements and Tax Returns in order, and doing your monthly Management Accounts (that takes me one day every two months). And it’ll cost more than you expect and you need to budget for it, so that it costs what you expect. BTW, I’ve found it easiest to base this year’s budget on last year’s actuals, taking into account that I know that there will be computer upgrades, etc. So I have a master spreadsheet with all my monthly journals in it, so that I can post them to my financials.

Saturday, March 30, 2019

Dear Pravin Gordhan and David Mabuza, let's fix South Africa

I believe that groups of people should create Power Stations.


Actually "My Power Station"'s. So we'll have the Old Mutual Power Station. The Naspers News24 Power Station. The Pick 'n Pay Power Station. The V&A Waterfront Power Station. Plus the Church Power Station. The Shul Power Station. The Mosque Power Station.

If you look at Old Mutual's on site power station, you will see that a lot of work has been done, but this is a tiny amount of what Old Mutual could actually be doing. If only I knew a director there who I could talk to about my vision.

I believe that the first thing that must happen in South Africa is that the Playing Fields must be levelled. So everyone should get the perks that the Energy Intensive User Group (EIUG) get, and that Big Business gets. eg Time of Use Tariffs; Net Metering; Demand Response; Buying equipment before tax and before VAT; sitting with Eskom doing demand planning on a daily basis; Energy Efficiency perks; Rebates; etc. And all Without a service fee.

If we do only these two things, and we follow the ideas as set out in the Energy White Paper of 1998 and the Renewable Energy White Paper of 2003, and their National Planning Commission document, that I commented on, then we will solve our electricity problems very quickly. And once we start solving our electricity problems, we will solve our water, food, transport, jobs, health, and other problems.

Note that a Government White Paper is a Government Strategy Document. If only our government had followed its own strategy.

It's in our hands. It's not the government's fault. It's not "another" or "the other's fault". It's my fault. It's your fault. Because we sit and complain and we don't do something about it.

I have a saying: "The rich are rich because they socialise. The poor socialists are poor because they (we) don't socialise." Microsoft, Facebook, and other companies are still there because the founders stayed together. If they fought, they worked out their problems.

Let's work together in our power station groups to solve our problems, taking responsibility for ourselves.

And let's dramatically cut our cost of living. Today.

Join My New Power Station: https://www.facebook.com/groups/milnertonelectricitywaterfoodcooperative and let's solve our problems, quickly, and forever. Here's to free water, free electricity, free food. As a target. The Zero Marginal Cost Economy by Jeremy Rifkin, says that in a Capitalist society, everything eventually becomes free or close to free. Consider free GPS on your cell phone; consider free calls on your cell phone; consider the world's library on your cell phone; consider free communication on your cell phone; consider that many people can work from anywhere, and no need for transport or public transport; consider free (streaming) TV on your cell phone.

But there is a problem in a capitalist society, and that is "enclosure", as explained in The Voluntary City. Remind me to tell you the story about the Pharaoh.

My friends: the price of water, electricity, and food is coming DOWN! But the fossilised fuel dinosaurs like Eskom are in their death throes, and as monopolies, they mess up a lot of stuff as they die. Yes, Eskom owe's R420 billion. But in the greater scheme of things, that R420 billion is a tiny amount of money compared with alternatives that actually save us money.

Note that I don't think that Eskom really needs to die. I believe that South Africa's electricity supply should be closer to 200 GW than to 20 GW. Huh, you might say "I thought that electricity demand was decreasing." Well that is only because South Africa's biggest export is jobs, followed closely by coal, iron ore, and so many other raw materials that are exported to the world, and then imported by us, making our finished goods costs amongst the highest in the world.
And the only way that Eskom can supply this 200 GW is to allow the public to help it. 

Do we want to now spend another R2 trillion on old technology, coal, uranium, gas, or do we want to rather use that R2 trillion in a different way?

I choose to accept that money has been wasted. I choose to accept that yes, it's a hell (done unconsciously (see Assagioli)) of a lot of money. But if we keep at it, then we haven't learnt.

I choose to acknowledge that a lot of people will become "redundant" as we move to the new system. But Eskom and our government are fixated on the number of people who can be employed by Eskom, or SAA, or Government, without realising that the approximately 200,000 people (two hundred thousand) who supply electricity and coal and building power stations, are doing it so that at least 55,000,000 (55 million) people have electricity and jobs and welfare and health and food.

Winston Churchill made a decision in 1911 to move the British Fleet from coal to oil. It was a dramatically difficult decision, because so many stevedores were involved in shifting coal around ships, whereas one person could turn on a valve and oil would flow. You can read more about that here. Search for "from coal to oil" (and then click down-arrow to get to the article) to learn how difficult decisions are made.

Government's job (according to the Renewable Energy White Paper of 2003) is to create an enabling environment for its citizens. Let us hold our government to their task. And let's do it now.

PS: The cliff on the right hand side of the attached picture shows our current electricity trajectory, even with new coal, and new water and potential new uranium. It doesn't have to be like this. But it's up to us. It's up to us. Today.

May we all be blessed in our coming and going.

We are all blessed.
We are all joyful.
We are all peaceful and at ease.
We are all happy.
We are all filled with loving kindness.
We are all happy.

Maybe we don't feel this all the time. But some of the time we are these things. And if we say these things as affirmations, we change ourselves and the world and each day, each of these things becomes 1 second more, so that eventually it is all day.

There is so much more one can write and say. You can read it all on my blogs and other places on the web.

A reminder that we need two things:
Level playing fields;
Lots of My Power Stations.

Yours sincerely,
David Lipschitz
david@mypowerstation.biz
0741193246, 0662288858
https://www.facebook.com/david.lipschitz
https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-lipschitz/
My Power Station Technology (Pty) Ltd, PO Box 1080, Milnerton, 7441, South Africa

Contact me and let's continue our discussion.


Wednesday, March 20, 2019

NEW SA GRID


New SA Grid

New South African Grid


Friday, March 15, 2019

Medupi: Behind schedule in 2010, 2014, 2015, and 2019

Dear Editor

I first wrote about Medupi on my ​Blog in August 2010. I suggested that the Medupi build be scrapped and the money​ be​ used more construct​ive​ly. Imagine if the R500 billion wasted by Eskom over the past 10 years had been spent on Renewable Energy. And Eskom is ​at least R100 billion ​behind on its Grid Maintenance​. And Eskom hasn't met South Africa's emissions standards, and if Medupi is ever completed, it also won't meet its EIA requirements​, and according to South African law, it should not have been allowed to start up!​ What is the point of Environmental Impact Assessments if even the government is allowed to ignore it?

The​n​ on August 9th, 2015, I wrote the following on my BLOG​, which was a copy of something I put on Facebook on August 9th, 2014​; and I want to know why has this been allowed to get exponentially worse?

Medupi coal power station should be online by now

Just a reminder: Eskom's first 800 MW Medupi Power Station turbine (unit) was meant to go on stream in September 2012. And then we were expecting the other units to come on stream at 9 month intervals, so we should have at least 2,400 MW on stream by now, but we have nothing, and the latest news, from our new Minister of Public Works, Lynne Brown, is that the first 800 MW unit will be on stream in December 2014 and then the units will come on stream at 12 month intervals.

South Africans are being held to ransom by our government, Department of Energy, Eskom officials, and their consultants, advisors, contractors, staff, and foreign suppliers. They are impeding growth and contributing to South Africa's debt crisis, unemployment, exchange rate crisis, inflation, and the possibility that South Africa might be downgraded to Junk Bond Status. Foreign Investors cannot invest in "Junk Bonds" and will sell their South African debt (bonds) and possibly investments, potentially causing a massive crash in our stock market and possibly worse strikes and hardship. But the situation doesn't need to be like this. We can change it.

The situation must change.​ (Added March 2019: Maybe South Africans, especially the jobless or soon to be jobless will wake up in May, and change South Africa!​)

South African citizens must take responsibility for themselves and not rely on government to help anymore regarding electricity provision, although government obviously still has a role to play.

Yours faithfully
David Lipschitz
Ph 074 119 3246

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Ramaphosa asks us to Level the Playing Fields

Please everyone: Lets Level the Playing Fields. President Ramaphosa mentions this in his latest SONA speech: its time:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/community_petitions/South_African_Government_Level_the_Playing_fields_in_the_Electricity_Industry/

Please sign the petition. Don't just like this post.

I created the petition in 2014. In five years, it has got 483 signatures. It needs 100,000 signatures, so that we can make a difference. If everyone who complains about Eskom signed this petition, we wouldn't have any electricity problems anymore!!