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good evening everybody good morning good afternoon hello today we're looking at the next slide which is slide 29 in the series about crises and this is the risk factor slide of the irp 2010 version 8 rp the integrated resource plan which is the resource plan for the next 10 20 30 years it gets updated approximately every five to eight years although some people think it should be updated more often i think every five years is enough
and this was 2010 and you can see it was the version 8 that we're looking at and there was still the final version after this but the version 81 had quite a lot more things in it than the final version and i was actually quite upset when they took out a lot of information out of the final version so let's just look at this version i had this table 37 of risk factors of different kinds of energy so no risk if there's obviously if there's a no risk project the risk factor is zero the cost assumption the scoring is zero lead time assumptions zero security supply risk zero operational risk zero so what zero means is no risk so if we don't do a project there's no risk there's no cost there's no lead time it happens instantly there's no security supply problem because there's no problem and there's no operations if we do a project that has no risk which is even whatever project you do there's always a slight amount of risk even if you install an air conditioner or a pool pump there's always a risk that maybe it's dead on arrival or something but do we know the costs of the project if we know all the costs in advance and we know 100 certainty we're going to meet budget zero lead time we know it's going to take three weeks is it definitely going to take three weeks zero because it's going to take three weeks if it takes four weeks then we made a mistake security supply is the sun going to shine for the next billion years yes we know for sure it is and operational risks well the sun's going to operate for 20 for 24 hours a day for the next billion years so we're okay and here you can see it says none is zero low is one moderate is too high is three and that's uncertainty and assumptions and then risks is nine is low nine is zero low is one moderate is too high is three and then there's all kinds of notes about the stuff on the left so now if we look at the highest the highest number is nuclear so nuclear power is the most risky according to the iop 2010 where they were thinking about installing more nuclear and south africa it gave got a 10 out of 12. the maximum score is 12 because if you have 3 3 3 3 3 3 4s are 12. so nuclear gets 10 out of 12 which means nuclear is very very risky okay cost assumptions 3 we don't know what it's going to cost lead time 3 we don't know how long it's going to take security supply will we get we can get uranium but of course we know that there's potential problems with uranium and uranium enrichment and so on operational risks well g what happens if there's a meltdown we're giving it a three and here you can see the notes actual capital costs could be significantly higher than assumed significant eia delays opposition to development so those are the problems that you know if you're going to build a nuclear power station you've got eras you've got environmental impacts you've got to check them all got to make sure everything's okay how you're going to look after the power station for a thousand years after it's installed then the next highest is pulverized coal and that's got a seven so cost assumptions one we think we know it's going to cost lead time we have no idea how long it's going to take security supply well said africa's got a thousand years of call and then operational risk three so that gives us seven and we look at six okay so we've got open cycle gas turbines which is a at the moment in south africa's diesel cost three we gave it a three in 2010 i mean look at us in 2022 with the price of diesel doubling in a year and from 2010 to 2020 the price of diesel doubled already which means that it's just mind-blowingly exponential growth we have no idea what it's going to cost lead time assumption well that that cost is actually the cost of building the thing yeah operational risks we say okay we know how to build it security supply we gave it two which is that problem we talked about just now and lead time assumptions one so you can see we got six and we go down to win wind wind gets two out of twelve now you would have thought with all the nuclear debate the nuclear so much better than wind why is wind only got too well cost we've got some idea what it's going to cost lead time we know exactly how long it takes to build and install a wind turbine scooter supply well you know we
there are different kinds of supply so the securities above the wind turbines which is what they're talking about here and then the security supply of the um of the wind um as long as the wind as the sun keeps shining the earth keeps rotating we're going to have wind if any of those two things stop well life will end as we know it so then we should worry about that operational risk zero so we give it two and then there's no pv here even though in 2008 the government announced the south african government announced feeding tariffs so you would have thought that the irp 2010 would have feed in tariffs i mean we'd have photovoltaic panels with feed-in tariffs and if you had photovoltaic panels well the cost would be zero because we know what the cost is the time we know what the lead time is security supply we know the security supplies operation risks and i would give photovoltaic panels a zero risk so there we are here we are with nuclear and coal having high risk and photovoltaic panels potentially having no risk so this is important to understand i know it says draft but like i said to you before the final version didn't contain everything in the previous versions and somebody went to a lot of trouble to produce this this chart i think it's important that we understand it i think it's important that we understand risks and that we deal with them and we go forward in our usage and yes i still believe that coal is a part of our future for the next 10 or 15 years at least so we should be building coal power stations that will meet our requirements and not necessarily build car power stations for 50 years when we're going to not need coal soon okay thank you very much as always like subscribe share and look forward to your comments good goodbye good morning
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