We are told that Eskom have 80% of what they need and should have 115%? What does it mean?
Eskom theoretically have 42 GW of base load.
But they can usually only supply 33.6 GW (80% of 42GW), and sometimes (during load shedding) as little as 28 GW.
But for us to have a proper grid according to international best practice, in order to supply 42 GW of base load we should have 48.3 GW (115% of 42GW). This allows for planned maintenance, unexpected shutdowns, etc.
Of-course all this assumes no growth in electricity over the past 20 years, as we have had hardly any new additional power stations coming on steam. For comparison, China adds 1 GW a week.
Worldwide electricity growth is 4% per annum which means 100% growth over 20 years, so Eskom should be able to provide 84 GW of electricity. Of-course this would double their income, but the government hasn't noticed this! And it would more than double the size of the economy due to new energy efficient industries coming on stream; and therefore taxation would dramatically increase and joblessness would dramatically decrease, but government hasn't noticed this either!
Furthermore, Eskom specialises in bringing people out of poverty and connecting them to the grid. This means that people suddenly have dish washers, washing machines, microwaves, kettles, hairdryers, heaters, stoves, hobs, etc, and therefore electricity growth in South Africa is much higher than 4%. And worse than this, because the people are poor, they get free electricity, which is paid for by people with jobs.
In South Africa, my definition of a rich person is someone who pays tax. A poor person receives handouts. Furthermore, a rich person tends to have a job. Whilst a poor person doesn't. This is a very sad state of affairs, and it doesn't need to be like this in South Africa.
In my opinion, Eskom should be able to supply over 100 GW by now.
But it can't. So what happens? Perhaps I am cynical, but this is what I see. We switch off industries and create unemployment. First to go? Textiles. Next? Smelters. Next? You?
If we mine something and then we smelt it, then we will be able to do the next steps and bring the final product to market. If we send coal and gold and uranium and platinum and bauxite and iron ore, etc, overseas, then China, South Korea, Australia, Germany, Israel, and others, use our coal to make electricity and to turn our minerals into aluminium, steel, etc, and they make cars, cell phones, computers, etc, which we then import.
Our mined products are overseas. Our jobs are overseas. Our taxation income is overseas.
Our balance of payments is hurt because we export raw materials at R1 for example and buy it back for R50. The profits are also overseas. We have high inflation and we have a poor exchange rate. Our people get poorer, even though the world's raw materials are in Africa.
So how does the government solve this problem? They get a R30 billion loan from the Chinese Development Bank for new locomotives for our railways. So what happens? We export even more raw materials, and China, and other countries gets richer at our expense, whereas if we had electricity, we could get richer together.
Eskom, and the government and the DA are so fixated on the tiny amount of income they can get from electricity sales that they have forgotten what electricity is for. In the 21st Century, with the talent we have in South Africa, we can grow our economy sustainably and dramatically, providing finished goods and services to Africa and the world. But our labour laws, and the red tape required in running a business, both support big business and reduce entrepreneurship at the same time. Big business can afford the people needed to deal with red tape. Hence draconian labour laws and draconian legal requirements for business hurts small business a lot more than it hurts big business.
If Eskom and the Cities deregulated electricity supply and allowed a free for all, there is no way that anyone could keep up with the supply that would be required to keep South Africa going. Eskom can't keep up.
An American uses almost 3 times as much electricity as a South African, so if South Africans want to be like Americans, we should have 300 GW of electricity on our grid, and we have about 30 GW of always available electricity.
In my opinion, Eskom should become the ISMO, the Independent System Market Operator, owning the national electricity grid and allowing people to buy and sell from each other. Eskom can continue to own and manage its own power stations, but with a 300 GW latent demand in South Africa, Eskom with its 42 GW of theoretical capacity cannot and will never keep up with demand required.
The Energy White Paper of 1998 and the Renewable Energy White Paper of 2003 should immediately by implemented. Net Metering with Time of Use Tariffs should immediately be allowed for everyone. Demand Response, where Eskom pays users to be switched off, should immediately be extended to private homeowners and SMME's. Homeowners should be able to build their power stations with before tax money just like big business and IPPs (Independent Power Producers) can, ie homeowners should be able to buy their energy efficiency products, and inverters, solar panels, batteries, etc, before tax and before VAT. And homeowners should be given the same kind of contracts that IPP's have so that the electricity build in South Africa can be further speeded up.
The government thinks they will lose money by doing this, but imagine a South African economy which is 10 times bigger than it is now. The government would collect 10 times as much tax revenue, ie R10 trillion per annum instead of R1 trillion per annum. Imagine how many private jets that could buy, not just for government ministers, but the thousands of new billionaires and millions of new millionaires that would be created in this vibrant land of ours. Imagine the social good that could be done with R10 trillion per annum? Every school that is needed created. Every hospital created. Free schooling, university education and medicine for everyone.
An eradication of poverty.
No comments:
Post a Comment