Blackout - Darkness - Long Term Load Shedding - What will it mean?

To find out what a total blackout will mean to South Africans, I have created The Last Blackout series of books. The first book shows how I found my purpose, how I found resilience, and how this lead me to become a "prepper" (although in a house in the middle of a city and not in an off-grid community). It shows 3 scenarios of how a blackout will affect people. The first two scenarios are set starting on a rainy Saturday next winter. One of them is in a suburb in Cape Town. The other is in Gugulethu, a "township" in Cape Town. The second scenario is on a hot summer's day next summer. It is set in a Call Centre. This is a very special call centre. You'll see why when you read the book.

The book and series aren't only for South Africans, but for anyone concerned about the future of our electrical systems.

“The Last Blackout” by David Lipschitz. A Science Fiction Suspense Thriller is available on Kindle and has just been launched. Also Amazon Print on Demand​. South African Paperback is available on 1st August. David's 6th published book and first Fiction Thriller.

Kindle Version R60. $3.14 outside South Africa.
Amazon Paperback Print on Demand version $6.80.
Amazon Hard Cover Print on Demand version $14.00.

South African books available from 1st August 2022:-
South African Paperback R100.
South African Hard Cover R300.

Some people have already prepaid to ensure they get theirs on or soon after the 1st of August.

"An electrifying read that will shock you into action."

South African physical book launch at Cafe Neo in Cape Town in Mouille Point across the road from the Mouille Point Lighthouse at 4 pm on Monday 1st August 2022.

#booklaunch #thriller #action #suspense #sciencefiction #book #author #thelastblackout #depression #bullying #electricity #loadshedding #blackout #purpose #southafrica #science #amazon #twohourmystery #twohour #twohourread #twohourthriller #twohoursuspense #shortread #suspenceshortread #thrillershortread #mysteryshortread #twohourliterature #fictionshortread #twohourfiction #future #community #people #electrical

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YouTube channel: Being Human in South Africa

No More Loadshedding

 Stage 6 load shedding is predicted tonight. Stage 4 is 7.5 hours a day. Stage 6 is 11.5 or more hours a day.

There are alternatives to Load Shedding if we take action together https://microutility.africa

Electricity Price increases or Load Shedding?

 As seen in my Facebook memories from 18th June 2015:-

"On the radio this morning, Redi Hlabi on 567 Cape Talk asking the question: do you want an electricity price increase or load shedding?

"The answer is neither. We've already had a 200% increase in seven years to pay for electricity that Eskom can't provide. How can a further increase provide more electricity?

"Also ESKOM have told us that the money is to pay for diesel. And we are still years behind on the new build program and maintenance program. Therefore this additional money will not reduce load shedding.

"What wasn't discussed is the huge pollution that burning diesel does and its attack on our environment, besides burning diesel's attack on burning money, which isn't in our pockets anymore."

Load Shedding

 

I've been speaking and writing about Load Shedding and Energy since 2004. Here is a post from 2009:

http://repairyourworld.blogspot.com/2008/12/preventing-load-shedding-power-failures.html

How to get people to listen and to do something instead of blaming and complaining and being distracted?

Why no load shedding recently in South Africa?

We aren't having load shedding because tens of thousands of people are installing embedded generation.

Embedded generation means generation at the point of use, or generation that is embedded inside the grid, rather than Eskom power stations which are at the source generation points on the grid.

Embedded generation including:

• solar-electric photovoltaic (PV) systems
• wind turbine systems
• generators: petrol, diesel
• gas-engines (gas generators)

Even without load shedding, electricity prices are incredibly high in South Africa, and the threat of load shedding looms for at least the next 3 years, according to Eskom, and many more years according to me and the IRP (Integrated Resource Plan).

Total Cost of Ownership

The average South African's saying: "Renewable Energy is expensive and we'll use candles when there is load shedding".

It's about choices. My neighbour drives an expensive SUV, but has load shedding - and she uses candles.

I drive a Renault Clio and put in a system so that I don't have load shedding and my total cost is less than her SUV.

Which is cheaper?

And read about the Mercedes on my roof.

NEVER look at prices individually. Yes, my electricity was more expensive then my neighbour's, but my TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP and my TOTAL COST OF LIVING was and is less than hers. And I have less stress because I don't have load shedding.

South Africa's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010 Update 2013 says load shedding until 2029

When will Load Shedding end?

See http://www.doe-irp.co.za/content/IRP2010_updatea.pdf

Look at page 107. F.4 & F.5.

"F.4. The results for the Moderate Decline scenario show high annual load factors of the expensive base load stations as well as unserved energy above the Adequacy Metric thresholds in 2023, 2024 and 2028. This indicates that there may be shortage of base load and peaking capacity in these years.

F.5. The results for the Big Gas scenario show high annual load factors of the expensive base load and OCGT stations as well as unserved energy above the Adequacy Metric threshold in 2023, 2024, 2027 and 2028. This indicates that there may be shortage of base load, mid-merit and peaking capacity in these years. "

Also see F.38 on Page 113:

"This indicates that there may be a shortage of mid-merit and peaking capacity from 2022 to 2024 and a shortage of base load from 2023 to 2028. "

CNBC Interview on 23rd June 2015: David Lipschitz in the news

"National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) begins its public hearings into Eskom's 25.3 per cent tariff increase application for the 2015-16 financial year. To discuss this CNBC Africa is joined by David Lipschitz, energy analyst at My Power Station: Software, Energy, Power."

And the video is here. I was interviewed on CNBC Africa's Open Exchange Program, by Tumisho Grater.

And CNBC's article is here.

On Facebook. On Twitter. On Google+.

And on CNBC Africa's daily news feed here. Click on:

"ESKOM PLEADS FOR TARIFF HIKE, BIG BUSINESS WARNS OF JOB LOSSES"

Load Shedding and What we Can Do About It?

#LoadShedding till 2023?

If you'd like a talk and discussion to your company or community on Load Shedding and what we can do about it, please let David know.

#WEFAfrica15 #WEF happening in Cape Town this week.

Cape Town Science Centre Talk by David Lipschitz - 27th May 2015

Dear all

Just a note that I'm speaking at the Cape Town Science Centre tonight at 5.30 for 6pm. Science Centre group on Facebook.

The topic is: Load Shedding, why its happening and what we can do about it.

Steve Sherman from Living Maths has set up the talk and he will be interviewing me after the talk.

The talk uses Powerpoint, but if there is load shedding, I have a backup talk which uses a few posters I have prepared.

Regards,
David

Imagine - no load shedding

The latest news is that Medupi Coal Power Station will only be completed in 2021 instead of 2019, which is already instead of 2018, 2017, and 2016. This means that the time from now till completion is almost as long as the entire build process was meant to take in the first place.

And this means that we can expect Load Shedding to continue at least until 2021. But worse than this, is that at the beginning of the 2020's, 10 GW of existing Eskom capacity reaches end of life, which means that just as Medupi and Kusile are completed, 10 GW of existing capacity will be switched off, and so 10 GW - 10 GW equals zero GW, so load shedding will continue for at least another decade.

Rewind to August 20th, 2010: This is what I wrote on my BLOG at: http://mypowerstation-sa.blogspot.com/2010/08/does-anyone-know-what-r100-billion-is.html

"We are continuously told by government that there's no money, but if we think differently we will suddenly find we have ample money.

"The South African government spent R7 billion on consultants last year to mainly write reports which are never going to be used or implemented. The R7 billion could have bought 700,000 R10,000 Solar Water Heaters. The R7 billion could have paid proper teachers (http://mg.co.za/article/2010-08-18-strike-on-as-unions-reject-govt-wage-offer) salaries.

"One way to find the money is to use the R100 billion for the Medupi power station in a different way. Stop the Medupi new power station development, pay the fines, and use the remaining R70 billion (my guess) for R30 billion of Solar Water Heaters (20GW of energy instead of 5GW of energy), R7 Billion for the teachers, and "change" for: feed in tariffs; zero VAT on renewable energy products; 30% rebates on all solar water and renewable energy installations; tax credits; R10 billion for training and skills transfer from Germany, Spain, USA, Australia, etc."

Now it is 22nd April 2015:

The R100 billion is now R125 billion with no end in sight.

Imagine how many poor peoples' houses could be power stations by now.

Imagine how many rich peoples houses could be power stations by now.

Imagine how many strikes would have been avoided.

Imagine how many more people would have been employed.

Imagine how strong South Africa's exchange rate would be.

Imagine how low our Inflation Rate would be.

Understanding Renewable Energy - Jargon Busting - Training

Please follow Load Sheding Guru on Twitter: https://twitter.com/LoadShedingGuru
Shedding has two D's except on Twitter :)

Please tweet this:

Understand Renewable Energy. Online Training (Webinar) by @LoadShedingGuru . http://loadshedding.guru/webinar-web-seminar/ #LoadShedding

Battery related questions in a backup system which can be used during Load Shedding in South Africa

Here is an answer I just posted on Facebook: "Have I been given the wrong info? I hear that the battery replacement cycle is rather short and therefore costly."

Hi Pat.

If you buy the 100 or 105AH "Solar Storage" batteries that look like car batteries, but which are called "Solar Storage", they will last about 2 years and then even though they say that are "sealed" I had 8 of these batteries and managed to refill them after two years to that they lasted 4 years. But their performance wasn't great.

18 months ago I upgraded to "Deep Cycle" batteries, 260 AH 12 Volt SonX batteries. The 4 SonX cost about R20,000 instead of the first set which cost about R12,000. But they are firstly 520 AH at 24 Volts instead of 420 AH at 24 Volts and secondly their performance is excellent. They last a lot longer than the original batteries.

And then the specification says they should last 7 years, but I'm hoping they will last longer than this, but even 7 years will be excellent. Note that in a battery system design, one should design the system to not use more than 30% of the battery capacity on a regular (daily) basis and only use 50% on a very irregular basis. This way the batteries are looked after and will last the specified time.

Having said all this, the inverters should last 12 years and the most of the photovoltaic (PV) panels are guaranteed for 30 years, with the PV panels performance deteriorating to 90% of their rated capacity after 12 years and to 80% of their rated capacity after 30 years.

So relative to inverters and PV panels, batteries don't last as long and therefore need to be replaced more often and therefore are relatively more expensive. But the benefits they give you far exceed their costs, in my opinion.

One should also note that if you have a "battery system", you need more components than on a "grid tie system" without batteries and therefore a system with a battery costs more than just adding the additional battery bank. And there is more maintenance on a battery system although the systems can be programmed to look after themselves and send warning system messages or emails or sms's if there is a problem.

Set 1: Price R12,500: Lasted 2 years. The second 2 years battery performance was really poor. Equals R6,250 per annum.

Set 2: R20,000: Should last 7 years: R2857 per annum.

These calculations exclude interest and the Cost of Capital, but I think the point is made.