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Genesis 1, 28 says that we should "go forth and multiply, and replenish the earth." Not all Bibles have this "replenish the e...

Friday, March 30, 2012

Renewable Energy Skeptics Beware


So on Engineering News, Chris Herold, a Renewable Energy skeptic, asked: "Really, you can get electricity out of solar PV from 6 am to 10 pm? You must be living in a parallel universe where the sun shines at different times. And what will you do during peak periods? The biggest evening peak is after sunset. Solar energy is also pretty weak during the morning peak (even worse during winter in Cape Town). All you would achieve is to double the capital cost of overall generating capacity, since we would still need to invest in REAL base load generation. PPP - Peak Power Parasite."

And this is my answer:

Yes really :) An average 3 bedroom 4 person middle class household use 1200 kWh per month. * 12 months / 365 days / 5 average peak sun hours gives an 8 KW grid tie PV system. In July 2012, this family will be paying R1800 per month including VAT for their electricity. R182,400 at 10% per annum over 20 years is R1800 per month!! At R22.80 per watt, 8 KW is R182,400 which is R1800 per month. ie pay the CoCT R1800 per month for electricity or use Net Metering any pay R1800 per month for your PV system.
 
Then get more clever. Invest R60,000 reducing your electricity requirement by 70%. This means that one needs a 3 KW system. Total price R120,000 or R1200 per month or R1 per kWh instead of R1.50 per kWh.
 
Then get the Eskom ESCO rebate of 42 cents per kWh at peak time and 10 cents per kWh at off peak time and this equates to R29 per 10% saving in electricity per house per month, ie another R290 off making the per kWh price 82 cents instead of R1.50.
 
Then use this difference to put in Vanadium Redox battery banks and Ultra-Capacitors and Hydrogen Fuel Cells and load shedding and smart metering systems for households and you have a more localised, reliable system at a cost that Eskom and the Cities can't match. And Eskom pays people who load shed more than 1 MW within 1 second of notification and you have a system which costs less than 82 cents per kWh.
 
My company and its consortium members has all this technology available today for installation within 3 months! So lets do it and stop saying it can't be done.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Make your own electricity cheaper than you can buy it survey


Make your own electricity cheaper than you can buy it survey

If you'd like to make your own electricity cheaper than you can buy it and prevent Fracking and Nuclear Energy, please fill in this Survey. 25 people have already replied. I'd like to get at least 1000 replies asap.

Saturday, February 25, 2012

David Lipschitz on Net Metering 2012-02-22


Attention Messrs Achim Steiner, Adnan Amin and Kandeh Yumkella
Your article in the Business Day is incredibly timeous as this past week I have reinvigorated my campaign regarding Net Metering.
South Africa is in a recession largely because of lack of electricity supply. This can easily and cost effectively be resolved by allowing Net Metering. By July this year, private citizens in Cape Town will be able to make their own electricity cheaper than we can buy it. And I have financial numbers which show that larger companies can already make their own electricity cheaper than they can buy it.
With Net Metering, users of electricity can buy and sell electricity at the same price. For example, if I produce 1 KW and need 2 KW, then I buy 1 KW from the Grid. Effectively, my meter is going slower than normal. And if I produce 2 KW and need 1 KW then I export electricity to the grid and my meter goes backwards at the same speed it goes forwards. This only happens with people who pay for their electricity in arrears and who have the old fashioned disk meters which look like small metal CDs. Prepaid meters either stop working, stop turning, or go forwards when one is exporting to the grid!
The South African Bureau of Standards created a document called NRS 097-2-1:2010 which was adopted by NERSA, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, in 2011. The technical term for this Grid Integration, Reverse Feed and Net Metering is "Grid Interconnection of Embedded Generation."
It allows for Grid Tie systems up to 100 KW, an artificial limit. I have two clients who are considering buying large roof top net metering systems: one at 700 KW and one at 500 KW. I also have numerous smaller potential clients who want to use Net Metering and know of a number of people who are already reverse feeding the grid. The grid doesn't see them and they are having very little effect. Their excess electricity is simply used by the neighbour.
Eskom and The Cities, including the so called advanced city of Cape Town and the Western Cape's Provincial Administration (PAWC), have not adopted the "Embedded Generation" policies. The three main reasons given are:
  1. The Grid Tie inverter might reverse feed the grid when the grid is switched off, eg for maintenance, and an electrician working on the line might get electrocuted;
  2. Eskom and the Cities will lose revenue;
  3. The grid might become destabilised.
1 was resolved in 1999 with the American UL 1741 standard which was harmonized with IEEE 1547. Any inverter which is listed to the UL 1741 standard may be connected to a utility grid without the need for additional anti-islanding equipment, anywhere in the United States or other countries where UL standards are accepted. A similar acceptance of the IEEE 1547 is happening in Europe. An island is a grid which can run internally, for example inside a building, without exporting electricity to the main grid. Many companies in South Africa already have Generators and when there is Load Shedding, ie enforced power failures because the demand is either too high or the supply too low, these systems "Island" the Generator and its "clients" until the Grid is restored and then there is a process of disconnecting the Island and reconnecting the Grid. These processes happen seamlessly and are installed by Electrical Engineers.
2 would be solved if government would see out of their silos. The opportunities are great if Citizens of the City of Cape Town and other cities could get the government, which owns Eskom, and the Cities to see out of their silos. I believe that the City of Cape Town gets 60% of its Revenue from Electricity Sales and the 150% increase in electricity over the past 5 years has increased this percentage from 40%. The fastest way to get renewable energy adopted is to allow private people and business owners with the required roof space to cover their roofs in Photovoltaic Systems. This will create jobs, reduce unemployment, reduce crime, increase lighting and electricity in Africa, give security of supply, fewer power failures, less chance of load shedding, and help move us away from polluting power stations. In places like Germany, California and China, the more renewable energy that is installed, the faster the economy grows. This is because the bigger base load power would then be available for the organisations needing the bigger loads, for example shopping centres, new housing developments, miners, smelters and other large users of electricity. And more importantly businesses know their electricity price for decades and can plan accordingly; and businesses get security of supply and fewer disruptions caused by electrical systems failure.
3 is a red herring. I understand that Turkey has found that wind farms up to 500 KW actually stabilise the grid. And in South Africa the two new 4.8 GW power stations will massively destabilise the grid when they are switched on and switched off. Switching on or off 1 KW or 500 KW is tiny compared with 4.8 GW, ie 4,800,000 KW. And if South Africa loses the main power lines from Mpumalanga to the Cape, for example in a storm or terrorist activity, then Cape Town could quickly be without 60% of its electricity supply as only 40% of Cape Town's electricity supply comes from our local Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.
I should say that large users of Renewable Energy such as Germany and Belgium notice problems on their grids when the Renewable Energy component reaches 20% of electricity supply, but it has taken these countries 20 years to get to this point, and with Feed In Tariffs. I think South Africa can do it in 10 years, and by then Germany and Belgium will have solved their problems and South Africa will be able to follow their lead. Breaking news: Germany is solving this grid destabilisation problem!!
I would very much like to help you in any way I can. In November 2008, the South African government announced that Feed In Tariffs (FITs) would be in place by March 2009. My company and hundreds of others decided to get ready for this momentous day. Unfortunately this didn't happen. There were FITs but no Power Purchase Agreement. Since approximately 2009, there has been a 2 cent levy (see what it was meant to be for!) on all electricity sold in place to pay for the FITs and my understanding is that there is R15 billion in this fund already. Be that as it may, we don't need FITs in South Africa anymore. We just need the implementation of Net Metering. Interestingly the Standard allows for Time Of Use Tariffs which would incentivise people to install battery systems to supply electricity at peak time whilst producing or buying electricity at off peak time.
And the R15 billion could be used on a first come first served basis to allow private people to install renewable energy systems before VAT and before tax. Businesses can already do this. See http://mypowerstation.co.za/2011/11/26/my-power-station-press-release-26th-november-2011-david-lipschitzs-renewable-energy-jobs-plan/  for more ideas along this theme.
Hence there would be zero drain on the fiscus and massive job and GDP creation on a Continent that will have the biggest consumer base in the world in the next 20 years. We can either supply our own needs or export our electricity requirements to China and the other Asian Tigers who are massively ramping up electricity production and who will end up making everything we need, but who will then end up owning Africa, as large creditors usually end up owning their customers when the customer cannot pay the bill.
The positive possibilities of Net Metering in Africa's biggest economy and in the rest of Africa are mind blowing. Let's work together to make a difference.
I look forward to your reply and to helping make Renewable Energy a reality in South Africa and on the African Continent.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Grid tied PV cheaper than municipal electricity?


My article that appears on page 16 of the November Energize Magazine.

Under certain conditions grid tie PV with reverse feed is equal to or cheaper than City of Cape Town electricity, three years ahead of schedule! Reverse feed is still "not legal" according to the City of Cape Town. How can we make it legal? The reason for this amazing state of affairs is because the price of City of Cape Town electricity for homeowners has doubled, whilst the cost of grid tied PV has halved.

A 1200 kWh house needs 8 kW to take it off the grid, but with energy efficiency, one can reduce this to 3 kW. This brings the renewable energy price down below R1,60 per kWh. In a year's time if the City of Cape Town increases prices by 25% to R1,60 per kWh and assuming PV doesn't reduce, we are at parity including borrowing from one's bond at 10% per annum. This price is R1,60 per kWh including VAT!! If PV reduces to R20 per watt as we are expecting, then the PV price per kWh will be less than the City of Cape Town price per kWh.

A grid tie system is one where all the output from the photovoltaic (PV) panels, which convert sunlight into electricity, is fed via grid tie inverters into the grid. This is called "reverse feed." A private homeowner in Cape Town using 1200 kWh per month pays R1,28 per kWh including VAT for a total of R1536 per month. If one can sell excess electricity at the same rate of R1,28 per kWh, this is called "Net metering." In a grid tie with net metering scenario, the grid is equivalent to a battery. In five average sun hours the house can make enough electricity for the day. When the sun is down the grid supplies the electricity.

If a house uses 1200 kWh per month, then per day this is 39,5 kWh. Divide 1200 kWh by five for average sun hours per day and we get to 8 kW. If we are in Upington, we can divide by 8,2 and get a 5 kW system. In London, England, the average sun hours is 2,4 which means that an 8 kW system produces 42% of an 8 kW PV system in South Africa.

Germany installs half of the world's PV panels. If they have to install twice as many panels as we need to for the same kWh production and they have been doing this for 20 years, then what is our problem? For the purposes of this discussion, I'm also assuming that we will need to install the full 8 kW whereas in practice, one could reduce electricity demand by as much as 70%, with energy efficiency meaning that only 3 kW of PV might be required. This could reduce the R320 000 system to R180 000. In many situations there might only be enough space for between 2 and 4 kW. The installation will reduce the homeowner's electricity bill whilst at the same time reducing demand on the grid. The economies of scale that selling the PV system at R23 or even R30 per watt would need a minimum order of 60 kW which is 12 x 5 kW houses or 8 x 8 kW houses. The reward for someone being prepared to be part of a group is a much better costing.

The next area to consider is interest rates and repayment times. Considering that the equipment will last for at least 20 years with only the inverter needing replacement in 12 to 15 years, we can borrow money over 20 years. An 8 kW system at R23 per watt is R161 000. Borrowing R161 000 at 7% over 20 years is R1278 per month. At R25 per watt we get to R1583 per month which is almost exactly the same as what the person is paying for their electricity.

So if my numbers are right, and if we can install for R25 per watt, and if we can use capital at 7% over 20 years, then we are already at "grid parity" for homeowners in the City of Cape Town. At 10%, and at R25 per watt, the monthly cost is R1970 for R200 000. In one year, R1536 becomes R1920, so in one year, we are at parity for homeowners who can take money out of their bonds to pay for their own electricity generation.

There are numerous countries which allow reverse feed, some with net metering and some with feed-in tariffs. Considering that our electricity in South Africa is so expensive, we don't need feed-in tariffs for homeowners. But we do need our government to allow people to reverse feed the grid and to take full advantage of the total electricity that their PV panels produces. The problem with a battery only solution or a solution which doesn't allow reverse feed is that the system might only be 30% efficient, thus pushing the cost of the system up per kWh.

Eskom say they can't rely on the grid tie inverter disconnecting from the grid if the grid is shut down and that an electrician working on the power lines might get electrocuted. This problem was resolved in 1999 with two international standards that all good grid tie inverters adhere to. So what are we waiting for? Ke Nako. The time is right for homeowners to take responsibility for the own electricity provision, especially that they can now make their own electricity cheaper than the municipality can provide it.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Job Creation in South Africa

David Lipschitz reply to "More formal jobs in Q3" on Engineering News.

The South African population is growing at 1% per annum, ie 500,000 new people every year. South Africa needs 42,000 new jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. 59,000 jobs in a quarter is 20,000 per month. Not enough. Also a lot of these jobs are government employment projects which are not sustainable. At some point the private sector cannot support an overextended government and the economy will crash. It's time for government to act on the incentives they have been proposing for the fastest growing sectors of the worldwide economy, namely IT (especially Smart Phones) and Renewable Energy (RE). Anything else will either create a bloated government or an economy in downward spiral. I should note however, that South Africa is a resource rich country, but it doesn't have enough electricity to extract and beneficiate these materials. The main restriction therefore on real growth in South Africa is the lack of electricity supply. An RE industry incentive, plus deregulation, plus enacting the "embedded energy" legislation would ease this burden and instead of the electricity industry losing 1000 people per quarter it could add 5,000 per month.